1. Current technical analysis:
- Current price: $1.1992 (+8.86%)
- 24h volume: 1.01B XRP
- 24h range: $1.0774 - $1.2388
2. Positive factors:
A) Technical:
- Currently in strong bullish trend
- Price above all major MAs
- Strong volume increase supports trend
- MACD and RSI provide positive signals
- Bollinger Bands expanding in an upward direction
B) Fundamentals:
- News on crypto regulations in the UK and EU about to take effect
- SEC chair Gensler resigns in January 2024
- Trump wins election and supports crypto
- Framework for stablecoins and crypto will be clearer
3. Trading scenarios:
Positive scenario (70%):
- Break $1.24 (high 24h)
- Target 1: $1.30 (+8.4%)
- Target 2: $1.35 (+12.6%)
- Target 3: $1.40 (+16.7%)
- Stop loss: $1.15 (-4.1%)
Cautious scenario (30%):
- Rejection at $1.24
- Pullback to test $1.15-1.17
- Worst case: Testing $1.07 again
4. Trading strategy:
A) Entry Points:
1. Aggressive Entry:
- Enter at current price
- Stop loss: $1.15
- Leverage: 5x
- R/R: 1:2.5
2. Conservative Entry:
- Wait for pullback to $1.17-1.18
- Stop loss: $1.12
- Leverage: 7x
- R/R: 1:3
3. Breakout Entry:
- Wait for break of $1.24 and retest
- Stop loss: $1.18
- Leverage: 5x
- R/R: 1:2
B) Risk management:
Capital allocation:
- Maximum risk 2% account/order
- Divide into 3 orders with ratios 40-30-30
- Trailing stop when reaching target 1
5. Important milestones:
Support:
1. $1.17 (MA20)
2. $1.15 (Psychological level)
3. $1.07 (Low 24h)
Resistance:
1. $1.24 (High 24h)
2. $1.30 (Psychological level)
3. $1.35 (Previous high)
6. Factors to watch:
1. News:
- Developments in the SEC lawsuit
- Crypto framework in the UK/EU
- Trump's moves on crypto
- Ripple news/Partners
2. On-chain:
- Trading volume
- Large wallet activity
- Number of active addresses
3. Technical:
- Volume profile
- Funding rate
- Open Interest
7. Special notes:
Positive:
- Benefit from regulatory change wave
- SEC may ease pressure after Gensler resigns
- Clear framework in EU/UK is a strong catalyst
Risk:
- Strong volatility with news
- Need to manage risk tightly due to leverage
- May pullback after strong increase
Conclusion: XRP is currently set up very positively both technically and fundamentally. News on regulations and policy changes may act as a catalyst for a new increase. However, it is important to manage risk carefully and avoid FOMO when prices rise too quickly.
