Participants of the Polymarket prediction platform estimated the probability of Bitcoin reaching a price of $100 thousand in the near future. On the prediction platform, bets are placed on whether the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to six figures within the current day, by the end of the month, or by the end of the year. According to the pool 'Will Bitcoin reach $100 thousand in 2024?', as of 17:20 MSK on November 21, the probability of the event is estimated at 90%. At the beginning of the month, this was estimated at 18%. The volume of bets in this pool is $3.6 million.
Participants in the pool 'Will Bitcoin reach $100 thousand in November?' believe that Bitcoin will reach the target with a probability of 79%. At the start of the pool on November 11, this estimate was at 31%. The volume of bets here is $2.9 million. Another pool, the results of which will be known soon, is 'Will Bitcoin reach $100 thousand by November 22?'. As of the morning of November 21, the probability of this was estimated at 10-20%, but by 17:20 MSK, participants in the pool raised their forecast expectations to 50%. The volume of bets in the pool is $407 thousand.
The optimism of the betting participants has increased against the backdrop of Bitcoin reaching a new high on November 21. The coin's price briefly exceeded $98.3 thousand, almost reaching the psychologically significant threshold of $100 thousand. In the pool 'What price will Bitcoin reach in November?', the most likely (43%) mark is considered to be $105 thousand. 25% are expecting a price of $110 thousand. Options suggesting a higher or lower price are assessed by the participants as unlikely (less than 10%). The volume of bets in this pool is over $28 million.
