Bitcoin's bloodsucking market is in a self-reinforcing process, initially only creating a bloodsucking effect on altcoins, but in the past two days has begun to suck the blood from meme coins on the chain.
I found in the morning that the market sentiment on Twitter has become extremely bad, with rampant crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism.
Many respected traders and OGs have even lamented that 'the altcoin season no longer exists.'
According to historical data presented in Dune's Alts Buy Signal chart, there are four patterns between BTC and altcoins:
Pattern One: BTC and altcoins rise together.
In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins show an upward trend, and BTC.D (BTC market cap ratio) may be in a consolidation or downward state. This is a prosperous period in a bull market.
This is a suitable time to go long. If the performance of altcoins is stronger than BTC, one can increase their position. Conversely, caution is advised.
Pattern Two: BTC and altcoins fall together.
In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.
This is a time to reduce risks, and one should lean towards buying stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. This is also the only time worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it is recommended to wait for a trend reversal. For long-term holders, it is advisable to adopt a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) or buy-the-dip strategy.
Pattern Three: BTC falls while altcoins rise.
This pattern is relatively rare. When BTC is in consolidation and has not seen a significant decline, it may usher in a short-term altcoin season. At this time, one can consider increasing risk exposure.
Pattern Four: BTC rises while altcoins fall.
BTC performs better than the overall market during an upward trend, and BTC.D continues to hit new highs. This pattern usually occurs before halving or at the beginning of a bull market.
In this phase, it is recommended to take the opportunity to accumulate altcoins in anticipation of an explosive moment.
The above summarizes the historical patterns.
It seems we are currently in some sort of pattern, but I have to admit that the duration and extent of the decoupling between BTC and altcoins this time far exceed previous historical situations.
Moreover, after the BTC spot ETF passes, the market worries that this will change the pattern of capital allocation to crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest trading target in U.S. stocks yesterday, which seems to confirm that such worries are becoming a reality, making the doubts about the altcoin season more persuasive.
But as someone who always maintains crypto optimism, I can still witness 'disruptive innovation' in fields like chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, and the Bitcoin ecosystem, and feel the strong momentum of 'exponential growth' in meme coins and consumer chains. In my view, discussing the 'end of history' for altcoins at this time is merely an irrational emotional outburst. If such a market makes you anxious and confused,
It's worth spending some time to pay attention to those solidly working altcoin projects:
Chain Abstraction Infrastructure @ParticleNtwrk
Chain Abstraction Fat Application @infinex_app
New Paradigm Infrastructure from Cosmos: @initia
Bitcoin Ecosystem Idealists: @NervosNetwork
Bitcoin L2 endorsed by the world's largest Bitcoin mining company: @build_on_bob
A platform dedicated to AI Agent asset issuance technology equity, in collaboration with Ai16z: @vvaifudotfun
Solana L2 that successfully gained 1M followers on Tiktok: @SonicSVM
only with inner peace can one remain calm amidst the turbulent waves of trading.
If you want to seize this bull market, it's definitely too late to learn on the fly; it's best if someone can quickly guide you.
I'm David, welcome to communicate!
