'We have to admit that the duration and extent of the decoupling between BTC and altcoins far exceed historical cases.'
Written by: NingNing
The Bitcoin sucking market is in a self-reinforcing phase, previously only sucking altcoins, but has started to suck the on-chain MeMe coins in the past couple of days.
This morning, I observed a very bad market sentiment on Twitter, with strong voices of crypto nihilism and BTC Maxi fundamentalism.
There are many respected traders and OGs who even lament 'the end of altcoin season'.
Based on the historical data presented in Dune's Alts Buy Signal chart, there are 4 patterns between BTC and altcoins:
Pattern 1: When BTC rises, altcoins rise
In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in an upward trend, BTC.D (BTC market share) may fluctuate or decline. This is the prosperous phase of a bull market.
This is the time to go long. If altcoins are performing stronger than BTC, you can increase your position. Conversely, one should be cautious.
Pattern 2: When BTC falls, altcoins fall
In this pattern, both BTC and altcoins are in a downward trend.
This is the time to de-risk, buy more stablecoins and blue-chip tokens. The only time worth considering shorting. For long-term trend traders, it's advisable to wait for a trend reversal. For long-term holders, DCA or buy the dip is recommended.
Pattern 3: When BTC falls, altcoins rise
This pattern rarely occurs. When BTC is fluctuating without a drastic decline, it may indicate a short-term altcoin season. Consider increasing risk exposure.
Pattern 4: When BTC rises, altcoins fall
BTC performs better than the market in an upward trend, and BTC.D continues to hit new highs. This pattern usually occurs before a halving or at the beginning of a bull market.
During this stage, it is advisable to accumulate altcoins in anticipation of an explosion.
The above is a summary of historical patterns by @cryptokoryo.
It seems we are currently in a state of pattern, but we have to admit that the duration and extent of the decoupling between BTC and altcoins far exceed historical cases.
Additionally, after the approval of the BTC spot ETF, the market worries that it will change the way funds are allocated to crypto assets, and MSTR became the hottest trade in US stocks yesterday, which seems to validate this concern turning into reality, making the skepticism about altcoin season more persuasive.
But as a perpetual crypto optimist, I can still see 'disruptive innovation' rapidly iterating in areas like chain abstraction, PayFi, Web3 AI Agent, and the Bitcoin ecosystem. In the MeMe coin and consumer chain sector, I can feel the push of 'exponential growth'. Discussing the 'end of history' for altcoins seems like an irrational emotional vent to me. If this market makes you feel anxious and lost, consider spending some time observing the altcoin projects that are actively working.
Chain abstraction infra @ParticleNtwrk
Chain abstraction fat application @infinex_app
New paradigm infra from Cosmos: @initia
Bitcoin ecosystem idealists: @NervosNetwork
The world's largest Bitcoin mining company endorses Bitcoin L2: @build_on_bob
Collaborating with Ai16z to create a platform for Ai Agent asset issuance tech equity: @vvaifudotfun
Successful growth of 1M followers on Tiktok: @SonicSVM
Calmness leads to far-reaching outcomes. A peaceful mind is our remedy during the tumultuous waves of trading.
Above.
