Trump's Tariff Policy 2.0" suddenly faces warning.

Seth Carpenter, Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, warned in a recent interview that the tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump will lead to higher inflation and weaken future U.S. economic growth.

At the same time, American retail giants also issued warnings about potential tariff policies. On November 19 local time, Walmart's Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey stated that if the tariffs proposed by Trump take effect, they may have to raise prices on certain goods.

In addition, Goldman Sachs also highlighted two risks facing the U.S. economy and markets in its report: tariffs and debt. A 10% general tariff could push inflation slightly above a peak of 3% and hit U.S. GDP growth harder.

Danger Warning

Seth Carpenter, Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, warned in a recent interview that the tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump will lead to higher inflation and weaken future U.S. economic growth.

Trump has repeatedly emphasized during his campaign that he intends to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods. In response, many economists have warned that the intensity and breadth of global trade frictions could expand, potentially resulting in retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.

Carpenter pointed out in an interview during Morgan Stanley's annual Asia-Pacific summit in Singapore that if the tariff policies proposed by Trump are implemented, these tariffs will lead to higher inflation.

Carpenter further stated that if these measures are implemented simultaneously, it could cause "a huge negative shock" to the U.S. economy, although he maintained Morgan Stanley's basic assumption that these tariffs will be phased in starting in 2025. Carpenter noted, "It is clear that tariffs will push inflation up; it is also clear that not only will the economies of countries subject to tariffs be dragged down, but the U.S. economy will also be affected... We believe that by 2026, due to the impact of these tariff policies and other policies, U.S. economic growth will begin to decline significantly." Carpenter is not the only one with such concerns; Mark Malek, Chief Information Officer at brokerage firm Siebert, also pointed out that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, especially on top of the tariffs already imposed by the Biden administration, a series of industries including automotive, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail will face higher inflation.

Malek stated that imposing a 10% general tariff on imports of consumer electronics would increase costs for companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple. As for these high costs, companies will ultimately pass them on to consumers, thereby raising inflation. Ben Emons, Chief Investment Officer and founder of FedWatch Advisors, warned that if comprehensive tariffs are implemented, the market could completely rule out the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2025, adding that tariffs could also "suppress" economic growth. U.S. snack giant tension meanwhile,

American Retail Giant

Also issued a warning about potential tariff policies. On November 19 local time, Walmart's Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey stated that if the tariffs proposed by Trump take effect, they may have to raise prices on certain goods. Rainey said in a media interview, "Our model is everyday low prices. But consumers may face price increases. It is too early to say which products will rise in price due to tariffs."

"When the American home retail giant Lowe's released its performance on Tuesday, it also discussed the risks posed by the tariff proposal. In the earnings call, Lowe's Chief Financial Officer Brandon Sink stated that about 40% of the company's product costs come from outside the U.S., and tariffs "will definitely increase product costs."

Lowe's CEO Marvin Ellison stated in a media interview that, like other consumer-facing brands and retailers, Lowe's is also concerned about the risk of rising costs. The company has developed corresponding response plans. Earlier this month, E.l.f. Beauty's CEO Tarang Amin stated in a media interview that if the tariffs increase, the company may be forced to raise prices. Many large American companies have discussed tariff issues in recent investor activities and conference calls. Many retail industry executives have stated that they are working hard to diversify their supply chains.

#Earlier this month, National Retail Federation (NRF) CEO Matthew Shay described the comprehensive tariffs as a "tax on American families" in a statement. He stated that this "will drive inflation and increase prices, leading to unemployment." The two risk points are as the 2024 election concludes, Trump returns to the White House, and the American economy is once again at a critical crossroads. Goldman Sachs believes that although Trump's tariff policy may raise inflation, the U.S. economy will gradually accelerate growth by 2025 as consumer spending and business investment recover. Earlier, a team of analysts led by Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius released a report indicating that a significant victory for the Republican Party may bring policy changes in three key areas: increasing import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, and extending and introducing more tax cuts. The impact of Trump's new policies may be reflected in inflation data the fastest. Goldman Sachs expects that by the end of 2025, the core PCE inflation rate (excluding tariff impacts) is expected to drop to 2.1%, while, with the expected tariff impact added, the inflation rate will be raised to 2.4%. Goldman Sachs noted that the impact of policy changes on U.S. GDP is expected to show offsetting effects in the next two years.

Specifically, the policies of increasing tariffs and expelling immigrants may drag down economic growth in early 2025, but in the long term, the implementation of tax cuts may boost consumption and investment. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs emphasized two risks facing the U.S. economy and markets: tariffs and debt. Among them, a 10% general tariff could push inflation slightly above a peak of 3% and hit U.S. GDP growth harder. In addition, the increase in debt and deficits along with high real interest rates could raise market concerns about the stability of U.S. finances.#BabyMarvin您拥有您值得