Last night, Bitcoin continued to hit new highs, reaching around 94,000, which may be related to the news that Bitcoin ETF options began trading. However, the stimulative effect of news is often short-lived. For Bitcoin to go further and healthier, it requires more significant positive stimuli; otherwise, a downward pullback to recharge before a surge is highly probable. Currently, operations are based on the principle of fast in and out for short-term trades, and the market has shown a fluctuating upward trend, not suitable for establishing long-term positions!

Ethereum is still in a weak phase, so there is a high probability of an opportunity to bottom out below 3000 dollars.

Yesterday, the ETF continued to see significant inflows in the U.S. On the macro data side, there isn't much important data this week, so for the market, the probability of continued up and down fluctuations is high.



Currently, why the trends of Bitcoin, altcoins, and second-tier coins are different is simple. From the time before and after Trump's election victory, BTC has shifted from being manipulated by exchanges and large holders to being aggressively grabbed by large institutions. Previously, many times when there was a large rise or fall, it was to clear out long and short positions, but now it has shifted to prioritizing grabbing positions for the next four years.

So currently, it is difficult to see a significant rise followed by a sharp drop to clear out the bulls; instead, it is more due to fluctuations caused by institutional trading, leading to both long and short explosions. Therefore, Bitcoin's current support strength is very strong, and a significant drop would only occur due to a black swan event.

The reason other coins, including ETH, do not have this trend is still due to the POW Bitcoin being limited to 20 million; whoever gets more first holds the power and pricing rights.

So next, we need to see which sector has more capital chips. To put it bluntly, retail investors need to dare to grab these chips; otherwise, they will only be beaten and should be cautious in chasing highs.

Does ETH still have the opportunity for a breakout?

The recent ETH market has really disappointed many people, and many feel that ETH has completely declined this round, with new public chains like Sol, Sui, and BNB splitting its funds and traffic. Is ETH really that weak?

Regarding the current trend of ETH, my view is that the previous performance is not worth looking at. You should reference the big level, particularly the breakout wave that started on October 17 last year; you can see that there hasn't been a major surge, which indicates that the overall market is still in the beginning stages. Because whenever ETH starts a crazy rise, it is mostly at the tail end of the market.

So for the ETH we currently hold, my strategy is: hold onto the spot at the 3000 dollar position, with an over 80% probability of doubling in the next three months. Not discussing technicals in the first quarter of 2025's Prague upgrade, I personally believe that reaching over 4000 dollars before Christmas should have over a 90% probability. As for the major market rally, I believe it may begin in late December, with Trump starting his presidency on January 20, at which point many favorable policies for cryptocurrencies will officially be implemented. If Ethereum rises above 6000, some altcoins can reduce their holdings or even clear them out to wait for the right moment.



Let's talk about the news:

MicroStrategy spent 4.6 billion dollars to purchase 51,780 Bitcoins in the past week, averaging 88,627 dollars, and the amount of Bitcoin purchased exceeds the total inflow of all ETFs in November, which is 3.5 billion dollars.

MicroStrategy has also predicted that if Bitcoin rises by 10%, its stock price could increase by 55% without changing its price-earnings ratio. It acts like a Bitcoin trust, and in the future, its valuation will depend on three main factors: high Bitcoin yield, rising Bitcoin prices, and unique premium capabilities in the financing market. The market should not only see MicroStrategy as a Bitcoin trust but recognize its unique value in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Yesterday, there was also news that Trump appointed Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce. He is a supporter of cryptocurrencies, and his company has been the reserve custodian for the stablecoin Tether.

Adding to the previously appointed Attorney General, who is also a staunch supporter of cryptocurrencies, we can conclude that the next U.S. government will bring a bull market to the crypto space.

From on-chain data, over 10,000 Bitcoins flowed out of Binance yesterday, while the stablecoins in exchanges did not decrease, indicating that the funds have not been pulled out, suggesting that large capital is still accumulating. The overall trend remains unchanged.

Next, let's look at some potential favorable factors that have a significant impact:

The first is MicroStrategy, which holds more than 20 billion in Bitcoin and is expected to be included in the S&P 500 index on December 6. This event has a significant impact, meaning that anyone purchasing the S&P 500, the largest index fund in the world, will unknowingly passively buy MicroStrategy's stocks because it is included in the S&P 500's components.

It is worth noting that the total assets under management of the S&P are as high as 1.6 trillion dollars!

In simple terms, future Bitcoin ETFs will be included in the Nasdaq index. Once included, the funds absorbed will reach the scale of hundreds of billions and trillions, which will lead to unimaginable gains for Bitcoin.



Second:

The world's largest company, Microsoft, will review a Bitcoin investment proposal on December 10. If this proposal is approved, it means this company with a market value of 3 trillion dollars will increase its Bitcoin holdings, which is also a significant capital entry into the market.

In addition, there will be the Fed's third interest rate cut in December and possible repayments from FTX, so do not fear a pullback; if a pullback occurs, it will be an excellent opportunity for you to add to your positions. After the market stabilizes, prices will continue to rise.

Brothers, come here to gather quickly!

1. Seize the opportunity to build positions in the next three months, which can help many people cross social classes again in a bull market!


2. Altcoin spot opportunities will be shared in real-time for both swing and long-term strategies!

3. The market has become active again, and there is definitely a need for new star sectors or coins to ignite a new bull market. Catching one can lead to huge profits, and catching several can lead to explosive gains!

If you want to join, come to Gong Zhong Hao (Rui Ge's Blockchain Discussion), and I will respond to everyone in a timely manner~!