【Latest Updates on Fed Rate Cut Expectations】
According to CME's "Fed Watch" data, the Fed's December interest rate decision forecast is as follows:
🔸 The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged is 47.7%
🔸 The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 52.3%
Looking forward to January 2024:
🔸 The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged has dropped to 35.5%
🔸 The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut is 51.1%
🔸 The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut is 13.4%
📊 Market interpretation: The possibility of a rate cut in December is slightly more likely, and expectations of a rate cut continue to rise at the beginning of next year, reflecting the market's expectations for loose policies. However, the uncertainty of the interest rate trend still exists, laying the groundwork for market fluctuations.
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