Bitcoin surged past $97,000 this noon, reaching a high of $97,662 before publication, setting a new historical record with a nearly 24-hour increase of 5.58%.
In this context, TradingView data shows that Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has soared to 61.61%, reaching a new high not seen since March 2021. Before publication, there is still momentum for further gains, indicating that the cryptocurrency market is currently dominated by Bitcoin's rise.
When will the altcoin season arrive?
In the cryptocurrency market, when Bitcoin leads the way, it often means that the market is still in the early stages, and the altcoin season has not officially arrived. According to historical cyclical patterns, after Bitcoin leads, market funds gradually flow to other mainstream coins (such as ETH, SOL, etc.) and small-cap tokens (altcoins), ultimately leading to a comprehensive outbreak of the 'altcoin season'.
In this process, BTC.D is an important indicator to observe market capital rotation. Although Bitcoin's price may continue to rise, the rate of increase will gradually be surpassed by other coins, causing BTC.D to gradually decline from high levels. Especially when BTC.D sharply falls from its peak, it usually indicates that market funds are flowing towards altcoins, which is an important signal for the start of altcoin season.
BTC.D reveals market rotation
Through the analysis of historical data, we can better understand the key levels of BTC.D and its relationship with market cycles. The following are the BTC.D levels of three major altcoins when they reached their historical highs according to CoinGecko data:
SOL: Currently just 9.9% away from the historical high of $259.96 on 2021/11/06, when BTC.D was around 43%.
XRP: Still has a 67.4% gap from the historical high of $3.4 on 2018/01/07, when BTC.D was around 40%.
ADA: Still 74.6% away from the historical high of $3.09 on 2021/09/02, when BTC.D was around 41%.
Although these tokens reached their historical highs at different times, their commonality is: BTC.D is around 40%. This ratio was also the low point of BTC.D during the bull market in 2021, and in the bull market at the end of 2017, BTC.D even dipped close to 30%.
Therefore, the period when BTC.D falls below 50% (indicating that Bitcoin is no longer the sole leader) and further declines to the 40% level could be the golden time for altcoin season. Based on historical experience, this is the best time to capture the explosive growth of altcoins.
Will meme season replace altcoin season?
However, it is believed that everyone has felt the difference between this bull market and the last one, with Ethereum no longer leading other mainstream coins and meme coins flourishing everywhere. Therefore, the 'cult leader' of meme coins, Murad Mahmudov, recently shared the image on the left, indicating that this cycle's Meme season is a completely new altcoin season that many are waiting for.
Bitcoin leads => SOL catches up => DOGE rises, driving large-cap meme coins => Meme season fully explodes
But of course, investors who believe in Ethereum will still insist based on the image on the right that everything will eventually revolve around Ethereum. What will the outcome be? What do you believe? We will continue to track and report.
