Dogecoin's price is currently exhibiting a highly bearish chart pattern on the 4-hour timeframe, indicating that investors may need to exercise caution. After forming a bullish descending wedge pattern between November 12 and 19, the anticipated breakout was short-lived and failed to meet bullish expectations. On November 19, Dogecoin broke out of this pattern, sparking initial optimism among traders. However, cryptocurrency analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) had predicted that the breakout would be weak, and the subsequent price action confirmed his prediction.
Dogecoin encountered a significant drop at an important resistance level (especially the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level). Kevin emphasized that unless there is a "thorough and fierce breakout" of this level, there is nothing to get overly excited about. He also noted that Bitcoin (BTC) is facing significant resistance, suggesting that Dogecoin's next major movement may coincide with Bitcoin breaking above the $100,000 mark. "Until then, everything will be slow," he pointed out.
Kevin urges traders to control their enthusiasm, saying, "Please control your excitement, as there is nothing to be excited about in the short term. BTC is still at a major resistance level, and so is Dogecoin. There has been no breakout yet." He emphasized the importance of Bitcoin's movements, adding, "Currently, technical analysis on BTC is more important than on Dogecoin. Dogecoin is merely trading sideways, waiting for Bitcoin to make a decision on whether to rise or fall. Wherever Bitcoin goes, Dogecoin will follow in the short term."
By analyzing the 4-hour chart, Kevin found that Dogecoin formed an "ugly triple top" at the macro 0.786 Fibonacci level— a bearish signal that could indicate impending downward pressure. He warned that if a correction to $0.30 occurs as he previously mentioned, "many blind permanent bulls will need to do some explaining."
A triple top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis, indicating a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. This occurs when the price reaches the same resistance level three times and fails to break through each time. Dogecoin's repeated failure to break the 0.786 Fibonacci level ($0.41) indicates weakening bullish momentum in the short term.
Kevin emphasized that Dogecoin has not truly broken out: "Unless it can cleanly break through the macro 0.786 Fib level of $0.41, it can only trade sideways." Looking ahead, he outlined a bullish scenario, provided this key resistance level is overcome. "If Dogecoin breaks strongly through the macro 0.786 Fib, then a range of $0.80 to $0.85 is possible. However, there is still a lot of work to be done. BTC needs to rise further," he explained.
For several days, Kevin has been predicting a deeper correction for Dogecoin. The formation of a triple top and rejection at the 0.786 Fibonacci level supports his main hypothesis. He outlined his initial price target: "We hope Dogecoin maintains a level in the range of $0.30 to $0.26, which is the golden pocket retracement level. This is a 30-40% correction from the local top, which is a perfect scale correction in a bull market."
In the long term, Kevin emphasized the importance of the upcoming monthly candle close. "Dogecoin's next big target is to close above $0.335 within 11 days. This would set a new all-time high for the monthly candle close, and I will closely monitor this," he stated.
