Recently, Reuters, in conjunction with 106 top economists from around the world, made three important scientific predictions about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the coming year, which are worth noting (especially for retail investors).

First, due to the backlash from the tariffs imposed by the leader, almost all economists believe that in the entire year of 2025, the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates by 75 basis points; by the end of 2025, the federal benchmark interest rate will be reduced to 3.5%-3.75%, which is a significant cut from the original market expectation of 'a 150 basis point cut, with the federal benchmark interest rate at 2.75%-3% by the end of 2025.'

Second, although the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be discounted in the coming year, 94 out of 106 economists still believe that in December of this year, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points. The industrial capital supporting the leader (manufacturing) is barely surviving under the pressure of high interest rates; he needs to fulfill a wave of campaign promises (interest rate cuts) before and after taking office.

Third, about half of the economists believe that the leader's policy is contradictory; he promises to impose high tariffs to protect American manufacturing, but the inflation rebound and high interest rates (resulting from interest rate cuts) brought about by the high tariffs will harm manufacturing even more.

If he truly wants to revitalize American manufacturing, the leader precisely needs rapid interest rate cuts and a weak dollar.

Therefore, the economists' predictions regarding the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 have a high probability of being incorrect. It depends on whether the leader truly wants to revitalize American manufacturing or is just making empty promises to deceive the blue-collar voters; ultimately, he may choose a strong dollar and high interest rates to protect the interests of Wall Street capital.

If the leader is merely making superficial promises and is actually colluding with Wall Street capital, then the economists' predictions are likely to be accurate.

Conversely, if the leader is truly focused on revitalizing manufacturing and is willing to offend Wall Street, then 2025 will be a year of rapid interest rate cuts, with a reduction of 150-200 basis points being possible. (End)