In the past week, BTC has begun to accelerate its rise, successively breaking through $9,300 and $94,000 ATH. Although the current BTC price has slightly retreated, it is still fluctuating around $93,400, with a maximum increase of over 4.5% in 24 hours (data sourced from Binance spot market, November 20, 17:00).
Currently, BTC has become the only investment category in Trump's economy that has not yet retraced its gains. Due to extreme levels of long positions and concerns about the continuous rise in yields, US stocks have retraced some of their recent gains. Although geopolitical tensions have intensified recently, with Nvidia set to release its earnings report leading tech stocks, US stocks closed relatively flat on November 19, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 slightly up, and the Dow slightly down.
Under these circumstances, Trump's personnel appointments are frequent, the pace of US interest rate cuts may slow, the intensifying geopolitical risks coincide with the increasing market awareness of BTC, and the FOMO sentiment driven by the Meme market has peaked. Investors need to closely monitor market indicators, capturing profits while managing investment risks.
Market Analysis
In addition to the ongoing escalation of geopolitical tensions, Trump's personnel appointments may be a key point for the future direction of cryptocurrency, whether it is the Treasury Secretary or subsequent personnel appointments in the Federal Reserve, or the future policies of the SEC, all determine the fate of BTC market adoption.
Geopolitical tensions rise, and safe-haven assets are favored by investors.
On November 19, local time, the US Department of Defense announced that it would provide a batch of weapons worth at least $250 million to Ukraine. The weapons in this aid package include multiple rocket launcher systems, shells, Javelin anti-armor ammunition, and other facilities and accessories.
Affected by this information, US stocks entered a brief panic after the market opened, with the panic index reaching 17.93, the highest since the 5th of this month. Market analysts believe that the escalating geopolitical risks will be a risk that the market structure must face, and as the new president is about to take office, the president's attitude will exacerbate uncertainty.
In light of the performance of the US economy, the Federal Reserve may adjust short-term interest rate cut expectations.
On November 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that due to the strong US economy, the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates and will carefully observe to ensure that certain inflation indicators remain within acceptable ranges. Powell reiterated that the path of the Fed's policy interest rate will depend on the forthcoming data and the evolution of the economic outlook. He stated that the inflation rate is approaching the Fed's 2% target but has not yet reached it. The Fed will closely monitor core indicators of inflation for goods and services excluding housing, which have been declining over the past two years. 'We expect these indicators to continue to fluctuate in the near range; the path toward the Fed's 2% target can sometimes be bumpy. But we still believe we are on track regarding inflation.'
The next Federal Reserve meeting will take place from December 17 to 18.
Who will be the next US Treasury Secretary? This is a key focus for this week.
The market is closely watching the cabinet arrangement under Trump's term. Currently, several key positions have become clear, and there is great anticipation regarding who will be the Treasury Secretary; the current popular candidates are Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick (CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald). According to CNN, Trump is expected to announce his Treasury Secretary candidate earlier on Wednesday local time.
Bessent is considered a 'safe bet' with rich experience in capital markets; however, Lutnick's company is one of the custodians of Tether, thus receiving special attention from the cryptocurrency community. Market analysts believe that regardless of who enters the cabinet, both candidates are seen as 'supporters of cryptocurrency', giving the cryptocurrency industry a chance to continue receiving political support and promoting the long-term development of BTC as a reserve asset.
Sources say: Trump's team has listed cryptocurrency lawyer Teresa Goody Guillén as a candidate for SEC chairman.
According to CoinDesk citing informed sources, Trump's transition team is considering listing Teresa Goody Guillén, a partner at law firm BakerHostetler and co-head of its blockchain team, as one of the candidates for the next SEC chairman. Goody Guillén is an experienced securities lawyer with experience serving the SEC and representing blockchain companies and traditional businesses against the agency.
Insiders in Washington say that Trump is looking for a non-bureaucratic individual who supports cryptocurrency to thoroughly reform the SEC. Unlike Trump's first term, the election process for the second term is swift and orderly, and it is expected that the SEC chairman candidate will be selected before Thanksgiving.
The total trading volume on the first day of BlackRock's IBIT options was nearly $1.9 billion, with 82% being call options.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst James Seyffart's monitoring data shows that the final statistics for the first day of trading of BlackRock's IBIT options indicate a nominal exposure slightly below $1.9 billion through 354,000 contracts, with 82% being call options (289,000 contracts) and 18% being put options (65,000 contracts), a ratio of 4.4:1.
Investment Advice
Currently, FOMO sentiment in the market is severe, and investors are advised to remain rational, ensuring robust risk control while properly allocating assets to capture profits and further avoid risks.
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