After the presidential election?
The U.S. presidential election concluded in November, yet international tensions continue to escalate. The Ukraine-Russia war has lasted nearly two years, with the scope of conflict continually expanding.
Recently, according to a report by CNN, the Biden administration approved Kyiv's use of American-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian territory after months of deliberation.
Russia has strongly condemned this, believing that this action approaches a 'declaration of war' and has warned that it may take extreme countermeasures. A Russian legislator even stated that this is 'a significant step towards World War III,' bluntly saying that Biden's move is 'adding fuel to the fire.'
As soon as the news broke, it immediately triggered concerns about a potential direct conflict between NATO and Russia, with discussions about World War III and even the 'outbreak of nuclear war' flooding social media.
This cloud of uncertainty has also become a new hot topic for bets on the blockchain prediction market Polymarket: Will nuclear war explode before the end of the year?
What is Polymarket?
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market built on blockchain technology. The core idea is to allow users to predict the probability of future events through a trading market. Users can place bets (trade) on the outcome of certain events by purchasing 'Yes' or 'No' tokens.
Popular bets surprisingly feature 'nuclear war.'
After the recent popular Polymarket bet: 'Who will be elected president, Trump or Kamala Harris,' a new bet regarding 'Will nuclear weapons explode before the end of 2024' has risen to the new popularity rankings of Polymarket.
Image source: Polymarket Will nuclear weapons explode before the end of 2024?
As of November 19, the cumulative trading volume of this bet has reached $1.64 million, with a 9% probability perceived for a full-scale nuclear war explosion by the end of this year (2024). Although the probability is extremely low, many people still chose the 'Yes' option.
This bet has sparked considerable controversy, with some arguing that gambling on topics such as nuclear explosions could trivialize the seriousness of the events. Many mocked those who placed 'Yes' bets as 'having never experienced the horrors of war.' Renowned financial blogger Zero Hedge jokingly remarked on social media: 'Good luck to those betting YES.'
At the same time, another bet on Polymarket revolves around whether Ukraine and Russia will reach a ceasefire agreement in 2024. As of the time of writing, only 6% of bets were placed on 'Yes,' indicating that bettors believe the likelihood of continued conflict next year is extremely high, and hopes for peace are bleak.
Image source: Polymarket Will Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire agreement in 2024?
A Polymarket user stated in the discussion forum: 'Rather than betting on nuclear explosions, it would be better to bet on a miracle of peace happening next year.'
Some analysts point out that low odds may not necessarily reflect real risks, as the tense situation of war and nuclear issues can easily change direction due to any unexpected events.
Additionally, due to the high anonymity of bets on Polymarket, experts are concerned that it may be exploited by certain political or interest groups attempting to manipulate public opinion, further escalating international tensions.
However, others believe that such bets humorously reflect the current grim situation and can effectively remind the world to focus on the most important war issues at present.
Risk of war and market response
The shadow of war has not only permeated international politics but has also extended into finance and cryptocurrency. With the escalation of the Ukraine-Russia war and the recent rise of tensions in the Middle East, market risk aversion has increased, leading to new highs in gold while demand for Bitcoin has also significantly risen.
Analysis indicates that if the risk of nuclear war escalates further, these safe-haven assets are expected to see a new round of price surges. However, for ordinary people, this is not just a numbers game or speculative opportunity, but a life-and-death reality. Polymarket's bets may just be the tip of the iceberg, but they have already issued a warning regarding today's tense international situation.
【Disclaimer】The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. Analyst opinions are for reference only, and users should consider more diverse indicators to determine whether to invest, as well as whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific situation. Investing based on this is at one's own risk.
'The U.S. election is over! Yet Polymarket surprisingly sees the possibility of 'nuclear war.' Will the third war start next year?' This article was first published in 'Crypto City.'
