Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Last night around 19:00, the Vitalik address bridged 32 ETH to Base and minted 400 NFTs named Oracle Patron. After attracting community attention, the minting speed soared. OpenSea data shows that after minting, the trading price quickly rose from a cost of 0.08 ETH to a high of 0.25 ETH. As of the time of writing, the floor price still reached 0.232 ETH, an increase of nearly 200%, with a total market value of about 10.8 million USD.
(Note: The Vitalik address is 0xd8dA6BF26964aF9D7eEd9e03E53415D37aA96045)
What project does the Oracle Patron NFT come from? What use cases or rights does it have? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze this in this article.
Prediction Market Truemarkets
The issuer of the Oracle Patron NFT is Truemarkets, a binary prediction market. Its trading mechanism is basically consistent with Polymarket, simplifying each event question into two answers: yes or no, and creating corresponding binary trading markets. The two answers are priced in real-time based on the odds perceived by the market, balanced by traders and market makers providing liquidity for YES and NO tokens. When the result is determined, the token corresponding to the correct answer can be redeemed for 1 USD, while the opposite token becomes worthless.
(Reference reading: (Ultra-detailed revelation of the technical implementation behind Polymarket), (With the US election approaching, is Polymarket's data more credible?))
What are the differences?
Unlike Polymarket's process of creating markets through proposal reviews, the current market creation in Truemarkets is limited to whitelisted addresses. In the official documentation, Truemarkets states that market creation will also be entrusted to AI Agents and will achieve permissionless market creation by 2025, although specific processes and methods have not yet been disclosed.
NFT and token use cases
According to official documentation, the current unique purpose of the Oracle Patron NFT is as proof of rights for the TRUE token airdrop, with each NFT allocated 2666.67 TRUE tokens, totaling 40.19 million tokens, accounting for 40.19% of the total token supply. Therefore, based on the current NFT market value, the total market value of the token is estimated to be 25 million USD.
So what is the purpose of the token? According to the current official documentation, TRUE is only used as a governance token. Token holders have the authority to control protocol fees, manage the oracle committee, etc. The oracle committee is responsible for managing market creation, incentive distribution, dispute resolution, etc. No substantial incentives related to the token have been seen yet.
How are the prediction markets doing after the election?
The US election is undoubtedly a key supporter of its Polymarket and other prediction markets. After Trump's victory, DefiLlama data shows that the prediction market's TVL dropped from a peak of 545 million USD to the current 134 million USD, and it has been sideways at this level for a week. In the TVL ranking, Polymarket stands out with about 100 million USD, while the second place, Azuro, is only 7.8 million USD, showing a clear gap.
In terms of products, Polymarket has not updated for several days. The current focus is still on updating various markets, with the top-ranked market being 'How many basis points will the Fed cut in December?'.
Similarly, Azuro has not had significant updates in product and mechanism in recent months, and its focus is also on expanding markets. At the end of October, Azuro launched special markets, allowing the creation of events outside the regular sports or political scope, such as 'Will CZ return to Binance after being released from prison?' and 'Will BTC hit a new high before December 2024?'.
It can be seen that the prediction market mechanism has entered a relatively mature and stable stage. How to discover and create betting topics that are 'popular and well-received by the people' will be the focus of development for a considerable period in the future.
