Recently, a prominent information platform released a major announcement that attracted widespread attention in the financial markets. According to authoritative data from CME's 'Fed Watch', the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate in the upcoming December is 40.9%. This data indicates that there is still a certain possibility of keeping the interest rate stable under the current economic situation. However, it is worth noting that the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 59.1%, which suggests that the market has a high expectation for a rate cut, and the economic environment may be developing in a direction that requires stimulation.
Extending the timeline to January next year, the situation has changed. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate has dropped to 30.4%, which means that over time, the likelihood of keeping the status quo on interest rates is decreasing. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 54.5%, still taking a significant share, showing that the market's expectation for this rate cut remains. At the same time, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 15.2%. Although this data is relatively small, it cannot be ignored as it reflects a more aggressive expectation from some market participants regarding changes in the economic situation. This data is undoubtedly crucial reference information for market participants; whether investors, financial institutions, or businesses, all need to adjust their decisions and strategies based on these probabilities.