Bitcoin hits a new high. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange shows that traders are betting that Nvidia's stock price will rise or fall by about 12% after the company announces its earnings on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by quarterly rate cuts in June and September, with expectations that the Fed will stop tapering in the first quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs' baseline macro outlook expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,500 points by the end of 2025.
Returning to the main topic:
According to a report by the UK (Financial Times): Trump's social media company is in deep negotiations to acquire the cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt, which is owned by the Intercontinental Exchange. The company is working to expand its business beyond online dialogue and is nearing a full-stock acquisition of Bakkt, although the valuation being discussed is currently unclear. US stock BKKT rose by 162% on November 18, triggering multiple trading halts, while Trump's Media Technology Group (DJT.O) rose over 14%. FOX reporter Charles Gasparino stated that while searching for a candidate for Treasury Secretary, Trump's team consulted with BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one senior executive. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the listing of multiple BTC ETF options products by Cboe Exchange and NYSE American. The US Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) announced that it is preparing to launch spot BTC ETF options, getting ready for the clearing, settlement, and risk management of these options, which will follow the new options listing process outlined in the options listing procedure plan. Data from the Chicago Board Options Exchange shows that traders are betting that Nvidia's stock price will rise or fall by about 12% after the company announces its earnings on Wednesday. Google data shows that on November 18, the Google search volume for "Memecoin" surged to an all-time high. The prediction on Polymarket for "BTC's highest price this month" indicates a 12% probability of reaching $110,000, a 20% probability of reaching $105,000, and a 67% probability of reaching $95,000.
On November 19, an address associated with MtGox, 1BuN9WfAdgE9S, sent 200 BTC to addresses bc1qw26802r8 and bc1qava88deh. The Wall Street Journal: Trump met with CB CEO Brian Armstrong on Monday. Earlier this year at the annual BTC conference, Trump stated that if elected, he would appoint a presidential advisory committee on BTC and cryptocurrency to design transparent regulatory guidance. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan stated that they conduct an annual survey of hundreds of financial advisors, asking what hinders their investment in cryptocurrency. US regulatory issues are the primary reason, which is one of the reasons this US election may change the rules of the cryptocurrency game. In the coming months, we will see a wave of institutional capital. A Bernstein report indicates that certain catalysts could drive BTC prices to reach their cyclical target of $200,000 by 2025. Major factors include: US BTC strategic reserves, commitments to cryptocurrency regulation, and demand for BTC ETFs and MicroStrategy. The new era of cryptocurrency regulation has yet to be reflected in prices, which may take at least 12-18 months. Most institutional investors are reassessing, and there will be a long journey to reallocate this market structurally. On November 18, the net inflow into US BTC spot ETFs was $255.48 million, with Grayscale BTC's net inflow at $54.4 million and Grayscale GBTC's net inflow at $5.8 million. The US ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of $39.1 million.
US publicly listed companies submitted their third-quarter position reports (13F) to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, revealing hedge funds and large banks' positions in major BTC ETFs in the third quarter. As of the third quarter, nearly 700 institutions collectively held 160.2 million shares of BlackRock's IBIT, which manages assets totaling $42 billion. Millennium Management remains the major holder of IBIT, increasing its holdings by 12.6 million shares this quarter, bringing its total holdings to 23.5 million shares valued at $848 million. Goldman Sachs increased its holdings in the BTC spot ETF IBIT by 5.77 million shares, bringing its total holdings to 12.7 million shares valued at $710 million. Goldman Sachs is the second-largest holder of BlackRock's BTC spot ETF IBIT, with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and others also on the holder list. MicroStrategy plans to raise $1.75 billion through convertible preferred notes, maturing in 2029, with proceeds to be used for purchasing BTC and general corporate purposes. US-listed mining company MARA announced plans to finance $700 million through the issuance of convertible preferred notes to increase its BTC holdings. Analyst Remo Uherek stated that MicroStrategy's recent purchase of 51,780 BTC used $21 billion raised through stock financing, leaving it with $15.3 billion available for purchasing BTC. If this pace of BTC accumulation continues, the funds could last until the end of this year. Goldman Sachs economists predict that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates consecutively in December, January, and March, followed by quarterly rate cuts in June and September, with expectations that the Fed will stop tapering in the first quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs' baseline macro outlook expects the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,500 points by the end of 2025 (currently at 5,900 points).
Morgan Stanley's well-known bear Mike Wilson has turned bullish, believing that significant valuation compression is rarely seen during periods of loose monetary policy. With the Federal Reserve expected to lower interest rates next year, the baseline target price for the S&P 500 index is set at 6,500 points by the end of next year, with a target price of 7,400 points under a "bull market" scenario (currently at 5,900 points). On Tuesday, US stock indices opened higher, with the S&P 500 index up 0.16%, the Nasdaq index up 0.56%, and BTC rising by 1.5%. Trump may be preparing to fulfill his "good" commitment to the cryptocurrency industry, as his social media company is in deep negotiations to acquire the cryptocurrency trading platform Bakkt owned by the Intercontinental Exchange. Currently, Bakkt's stock market value is $445 million (with a 162% increase on Monday and a 10% increase at Tuesday's opening), and BTC rose to a new high of $93,500. An important promise in Trump's pre-election commitments is a strategic BTC reserve for the US, with a promise to reserve 1 million BTC made in July. JPMorgan considers this a low-probability, high-impact event that could drive BTC prices higher. The 1 million BTC already exceeds the total of 11 BTC spot ETFs approved for listing by the US SEC this year (with BlackRock holding about 470,000 BTC). The bullish outlook remains strong, keeping optimism while waiting for the rise.
