On April 19, 2024, BTC welcomes the fourth halving, with mining rewards reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
This round of BTC bull market also comes with the arrival of BTC halving.
To summarize my analysis and actions regarding the BTC market before and after the halving.
The BTC halving market cannot simply be calculated starting from the day of the halving or the month of the halving.
Cycles are like the Tai Chi diagram, repeating endlessly in nested loops.
Around this halving in 2024, I roughly delineated the timeline from the end of 2021 to the end of 2025. A total of four years.
1, 2021.11~2022.11 First phase bear market
2, 2022.11～2023.3 Second phase builds the bottom
3, 2023.3～2023.10 Third phase oscillates upward
4, 2023.10～2024.3 Fourth phase rises
5, 2024.3～2024.10 Fifth phase oscillates
6, 2024.10～2025.3 Sixth phase rises
7, 2025.3～2025.10 Seventh phase rises again
The first phase, 2021.11~2022.11, was completely the bear market phase after the last bull market, experiencing the Luna crash (May) and the FTX crash (November), after which BTC fell to around 15,000.
The second phase, 2022.11～2023.3, in November 2022, the last round of the market was completely finished, BTC reached its lowest point, and then consolidated for four months, before starting to rise again and breaking through the upper limit of the phase in March of the following year. I call this period BTC emerging from the valley.
The third phase from March 2023 to October 2023 has been in a range of oscillating bottoms, a solid bottom pattern emerged over 7 months.
The fourth phase began, and by late October, a violent surge started, with a single large candle on October 23 showing an increase of up to 10%, marking the beginning of the third phase. After that, BTC surged forward, rising from 30k to nearly 74k (for ease of narrative, we uniformly say 74k).
In the fifth phase, BTC fluctuated wildly, from a high of 74k to 49k on August 5, 2024. I do not know how many people smashed their thighs, nor how many were laughing with joy. The first half of this fourth phase was constantly consolidating at high levels, after March 14, repeatedly attempting to break the previous high without success, stumbling downwards, and swaying forward.
In the sixth phase, while writing this article, this phase is approaching. However, this is the second bull market time frame of BTC’s current halving, which I call the violent bull market. The arrival of the violent bull market will also be marked by a K-line with an increase of over 10%.
In the seventh phase, I cannot see this phase for now. Because from the perspective of debt and currency, blockchain is the only choice for the US, thus BTC's trend will increasingly be influenced by fundamentals. Therefore, how high and how far BTC can go in the future will definitely be determined by fundamentals, while the technical aspect can see the market trend.
These seven phases
The first phase is the bear market
The second phase is all about building the bottom, with small fluctuation space, long time, and it is difficult to grasp.
The third phase is constructing a pattern, with large fluctuations and long time, consuming mental energy making it difficult to operate.
I seized the fourth phase and then went to cash until the mid-point of the fourth phase.
I avoided the high-level consolidation in the first half of the fifth phase.
The ongoing sixth phase is all set, only waiting for the east wind, which is the present.
The upcoming seventh phase should be observed while walking, focusing on the development status of RWA.
Opportunities, risks, potential opportunities
Three major principles of technical analysis:
1, Market behavior includes digesting everything
2, History always repeats itself;
3, Prices always evolve in the form of trends;
Analyzing each round of bull market opportunities from these three principles will be very clear. History always repeats itself, bull markets will definitely come, and opportunities will certainly exist. But opportunities are also different. Those who are often immersed in blockchain know that BTC halving will definitely bring a bull market, so how many opportunities are there? From the perspectives of winning rate, profit-loss ratio, trading frequency, and net profit, each can be analyzed separately:
1 opportunity: One opportunity: Very obvious, enter in the second phase, exit in the seventh phase, just need to trade once, buy spot and do not move, eat and drink as you please. He is strong as he is, the breeze brushes the mountain ridge, he is weak as he is, the bright moon spreads over the great river.
3 opportunities: If you are very sensitive to the evolution of BTC cycles and have a very high trading awareness, you can identify the boundaries of BTC cycles, then having two more opportunities means two more expectations.
I personally took three opportunities.
Without being modest, I accurately calculated the overall cycle range of BTC in the first two instances.
I started buying BTC at the end of September 2023, and settled on March 5, 2024. The first opportunity was firmly seized.
The second time I gradually built positions starting from July 5, 2024, the first 1/3 position was built on July 5; the second 1/3 position was built on August 5, 2024, because Powell gave a speech saying interest rates would be lowered, expecting changes that would affect market rhythm; the last 1/3 position was completed on September 8, 2024, with the holding period until the end of the fifth phase.
Countless opportunities: This is hard to say because everyone's definition of opportunities is different and their operating methods are also different.
Therefore, the specific method adopted is entirely determined by trading boundaries.
Trading boundaries: trading market, trading varieties, spot or leverage, time (holding duration), space (profit target and stop-loss space), etc.
Finally, there is one very important point: trading consistency - execution.
No matter which trading method is chosen, it must be executed according to one's own plan.
Of course, there may be black swan events that affect the plan, and that will require specific analysis based on the situation.
Other times, self-optimization, fast and slow integration, just wait quietly for the flowers to bloom.
The above is for trading varieties as BTC.
Of course, other virtual currencies can also be allocated, such as public chain coins and meme coins.
They are another completely different trading method from BTC.
Especially meme coins, I will write an analysis on meme coins during this bull market when I have time.
I won't elaborate on this here.
Finally, I would like to share a saying with all viewers:
Enjoy the thrill of floating profits, but also endure the agony of drawdowns #市场围绕90K $BTC
