【Is it currently the season for altcoins? This is the key reason for ETH's price surge】
Recently, cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), and Tron (TRX) have performed well, with weekend gains of 15% to 90%, driving market speculation about whether we have entered an "altcoin season." Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have remained stable, with ETH consolidating around $3,000, and the upward trend is not yet complete.
Historical data shows that during the consolidation phase following BTC and ETH price increases, small-cap tokens usually perform better. A report from QCP Capital indicated that BTC's market share is around 60%, and if it falls below 58%, it confirms the start of the altcoin season. Solana saw a rapid rise of 17% over the weekend and established a firm resistance level at $240. The market believes that the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration will drive demand for altcoins.
Additionally, Bitcoin's price is targeting a $100,000 goal, and Trump's potential return to office in January next year may further boost demand in the altcoin market. Despite the outflow from Bitcoin ETFs last week, institutional investors are still making large purchases at high levels, maintaining strong support for Bitcoin.
Altcoins are performing strongly, but Ethereum's gains are slightly lagging, having pulled back nearly 10% since reaching a high of $3,444 in early November, currently stabilizing with a rebound of 1.13% around $3,000. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that about 28,200 addresses have accumulated over 6.14 million ETH at this price level, forming a strong demand zone, which could be a significant driver for the altcoin season.
Ethereum's logarithmic regression model predicts that the price could rise to $9,200 by May 2025, and if historical trends continue, could further surge to $17,600, showing an optimistic outlook. At the same time, following Trump's victory, interest in spot Ethereum ETFs has rebounded, with net inflows turning positive, further boosting market confidence.
