Technical Overview
Time Frame: 15-minute interval for both charts.
Price Positioning:
Current price is at 3.485, slightly below the 200-period MA (3.570) in the first chart. This indicates mild bearish sentiment in the short term.
The second chart highlights a support zone (purple box), where the price is hovering near the upper boundary. This area appears to be a critical inflection point.
Key Observations
Trend Analysis:
The price has been moving sideways after a significant rally (visible on 14th November). The flattening of the 200-MA suggests that the trend has shifted into a consolidation phase.
Any breakout above the 200-MA could reignite bullish momentum.
Support and Resistance:
The support zone (purple box) has held strong multiple times, acting as a base for bullish reversals. A breakdown below this level would indicate a shift toward a bearish trend.
Resistance levels are currently aligned with the 200-MA and prior price rejection zones around 3.6 - 3.7.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): At 61.18, the RSI shows moderately bullish momentum but is nearing the overbought threshold. This indicates that further upside movement may require stronger market participation.
MACD Histogram: The histogram reflects improving momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting bullish potential in the short term.
Volume:
Volume levels appear low compared to the significant rally on November 14th, signaling reduced market activity. A breakout or breakdown would require confirmation through increased trading volume.
Scenario Analysis
Bullish Scenario:
If the price breaks above the 200-MA (3.570) with strong volume, this could lead to a move toward the next resistance zone at 3.7 - 3.8.
A continued RSI climb above 70 would indicate stronger bullish momentum.
Bearish Scenario:
A breakdown below the support zone (purple box) could push the price lower, testing levels around 3.2 - 3.3 or even further downside depending on volume and market sentiment.
Declining RSI toward 40 and a bearish MACD crossover would confirm further weakness.
Conclusion
The market is consolidating near a key support zone after a previous bullish rally. Traders should watch for:
A breakout above the 200-MA to confirm bullish momentum.
A breakdown below the support zone for a bearish continuation.
Current momentum indicators suggest mild bullish potential, but confirmation through volume and price action is necessary to commit to a directional trade.