1. Price movement forecast (short-term, medium-term)
• Short-term forecast (1-7 days): 🟢LONG with a probability of 70%. A possible short-term breakout of the level $0.4159 and movement towards $0.3910 with subsequent rebound is anticipated.
• Medium-term forecast (1-3 weeks): 🟢LONG with a probability of 65%. After recovery from the level $0.3910, movement towards targets $0.4500 and $0.4688 is expected.
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2. Support and resistance levels
• Support:
o $0.4159 (key support, with high volume).
o $0.3910 (deep support, possible reversal point).
o $0.3850 (extreme support zone, after which a downward breakout is possible).
• Resistance:
o $0.4500 (local resistance zone).
o $0.4688 (significant resistance by volume).
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3. Entry points, exits, and stop-losses for 🟢LONG position
• Entry points:
o $0.3910 (main zone for opening long position).
o $0.4159 (upon confirmation of reversal from this zone).
• Targets:
1. $0.4500 (first target).
2. $0.4688 (medium-term target).
• Stop-loss:
o $0.3850 (below the level $0.3910 to minimize risk).
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4. Entry points, exits, and stop-losses for 🛑SHORT position
• Entry points:
o $0.4500 (on the retest of resistance).
o $0.4688 (in the absence of a breakout of the level).
• Targets:
1. $0.4159 (first target).
2. $0.3910 (deep target).
3. $0.3752 (additional target).
• Stop-loss:
o $0.4700 (above the zone of $0.4688).
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5. Scenario probabilities
• 🟢LONG: 70%.
o Strong support at level $0.3910 confirmed by horizontal volume.
o RSI — 61, in the growth zone, indicating a possibility of a rebound.
o Ichimoku Cloud shows potential recovery after retesting support.
• 🛑SHORT: 30%.
o Possible only upon a breakout below the level $0.3910.
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Additional factors:
1. Vertical volume:
o Confirms strong support at $0.3910.
2. Liquidation map:
o High liquidations on longs below $0.3910.
3. EMA:
o EMA-20 ($0.3976) and EMA-50 ($0.3762) provide support for the upward trend.
4. Ichimoku Cloud:
o The price is approaching the cloud, confirming the possibility of a rebound.
5. Capital flows:
o There is a prevailing outflow of capital on exchanges over the last 7 days (-9%) and 30 days (-12%).
o Inflow of large holders over 7 days — +4%, over 30 days — +6%.
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⚠️Overall conclusion:
• Scenario 🟢LONG:
o Probability: 70%.
o Entry points: $0.3910, $0.4159.
o Targets: $0.4500, $0.4688.
o Stop-loss: $0.3850.
• Scenario 🛑SHORT:
o Probability: 30%.
o Entry points: $0.4500, $0.4688.
o Targets: $0.4159, $0.3910, $0.3752.
o Stop-loss: $0.4700. #Polygon
