Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

As Trump's second term as president approaches, some key positions in his cabinet have surfaced over the past few days, but the battle for the position of Secretary of the Treasury has become increasingly fierce.

According to current market expectations, the nomination of the new Treasury Secretary could be announced as early as this week, but the Trump team has not yet made a final decision on the candidate. This morning, Fox Business reporter Charles Gasparino revealed that the Trump team had sought opinions from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and at least one BlackRock executive; in addition, Trump is also set to meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to discuss personnel issues for the next government.

The prediction market Polymarket has opened a betting pool for the Treasury Secretary position, and as of around 10:00, the trading volume in that pool has exceeded $2 million. The current popular potential candidates are as follows (only covering the top 6 candidates, remaining options have very low probability):

  • Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh;

  • Key Square Group Founder Scott Bessent;

  • Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick;

  • Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan;

  • Former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer;

  • Senator Bill Hagerty.

Currently, the market is clearly looking forward to someone with a more friendly attitude toward cryptocurrency controlling the financial power, thus providing a more relaxed growth environment for the industry. Next, Odaily Planet Daily will sequentially sort out the past attitudes of these six potential candidates toward the cryptocurrency industry.

Probability Front-Runner: Kevin Warsh

First of all, it is worth celebrating that the current nominee with the highest probability is former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (46%), who has long been seen as a supporter of cryptocurrency — even before Trump’s attitude shifted.

As early as January 2021, Warsh stated in an interview with CNBC, "It makes sense for Bitcoin to be part of a portfolio in an environment where the dollar is weakening."

In 2022, Warsh also invested in Bitwise, one of the main proponents of BTC and ETH ETFs.

However, Warsh himself has a certain controversy as he has repeatedly expressed support for Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which the decentralized spirit of the cryptocurrency industry may not favor.

The latest news is that the Trump team supports Warsh as Treasury Secretary. Warsh has been invited to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago for discussions, but the relevant talks are still ongoing.

Soros' former deputy: Scott Bessent

Scott Bessent, founder of hedge fund Key Square Group and former deputy to Soros, was once seen as the most likely candidate for the next Treasury Secretary, and his nomination probability had previously led Polymarket. However, after "American Patriot" Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent’s appointment, his nomination probability dropped sharply.

Just as Musk criticized Bessent for being "business as usual," Bessent is considered a more traditional figure. The Associated Press once positioned him as a "skeptic of cryptocurrency."

However, as Trump increasingly supports cryptocurrency, Bessent's attitude has also changed. He stated in July, "I am excited about the President embracing cryptocurrency; I think it resonates very well with the Republican Party. Cryptocurrency represents freedom, and the cryptocurrency economy will continue to exist."

The latest news is that Bessent may turn to serve as Chairman of the National Economic Council, but this outcome is also not yet certain.

The Man Behind Tether: Howard Lutnick

While Elon Musk publicly opposed Bessent, he also openly supported Trump transition team co-chair Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. As a result, Lutnick's nomination probability also briefly led, but then declined due to rumors about Warsh's imminent rise.

Lutnick is a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and can even be seen as the most pro-crypto among the candidates.

Lutnick's Cantor Fitzgerald manages over half of Tether's stablecoin reserves; Lutnick has personally spoken at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville; Lutnick has also advocated for classifying Bitcoin as a commodity similar to gold and oil and called for clearer regulations in the cryptocurrency field.

The $700 billion helmsman: Marc Rowan

The name of Marc Rowan, CEO of asset management giant Apollo Global Management, has only recently been listed as a potential candidate.

Although Rowan's company focuses on alternative asset investments, he himself rarely comments on cryptocurrency. In 2022, Rowan stated in an interview with Bloomberg, "The ecosystem built around cryptocurrency is simply amazing"; however, this year, when asked whether cryptocurrency would play a role in the future of the U.S. financial system, he said the topic "was beyond his comprehension."

The Financial Times reported that some Wall Street executives hold a positive attitude toward Rowan's potential nomination, but they also believe that it would be difficult for Rowan to give up the CEO position of Apollo Global Management, which has assets under management of up to $700 billion.

"Trade War" Designer: Robert Lighthizer

Robert Lighthizer has not clearly expressed his stance on cryptocurrency, but the market still needs to pay attention to the potential appointment of Lighthizer.

Lighthizer served as the former U.S. Trade Representative during Trump's first term and is seen as a "staunch trade protectionist." Politico even referred to him as the "designer" of Trump’s tariff trade war against China. The market generally worries that Lighthizer's appointment will affect the vitality and stability of global trade activities.

Cryptocurrency Bill Proponent: Bill Hagerty

Tennessee Republican Senator Bill Hagerty has a low probability of becoming Treasury Secretary, but he has actually pushed for cryptocurrency-related legislation as a senator.

In October this year, Hagerty released a legislative discussion draft aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Investment bank TD Cowen stated in a report that this draft could become the outline for future legislation in 2025.

Hagerty has also expressed support for Trump’s efforts to make the U.S. a cryptocurrency hub and mentioned in July when discussing the Bitcoin industry, "We need to ensure this happens in the U.S."

The Regulatory Spring for Cryptocurrency

In summary, the next candidate for U.S. Treasury Secretary is expected to surface soon. From the perspective of potential successors, most of the names that have emerged so far have a relatively friendly attitude toward cryptocurrency, except for the ambiguous Robert Lighthizer.

For an industry long plagued by regulatory troubles, the next few years may be the most favorable growth environment in its history, and this regulatory spring may be the best opportunity for all parties in the industry to seek development.