Bitcoin (BTC) has traded within a narrow 7% range since November 12, signaling a consolidation phase around the $91,000 level. However, derivatives products indicate that professional traders remain confident in the bullish market. Additionally, multiple attempts to break above $92,000 suggest strong buying demand beyond MicroStrategy's BTC purchases.
The 25% deviation of 30-day Bitcoin options (put-call) on Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch
The delta skew of BTC options has dropped to a four-month low, indicating that the market is pricing a discount for put options. Levels below -6% suggest bullish sentiment and reflect confidence in the $87,000 support level, particularly from whales and arbitrage desks.
Although the data shows optimism, it does not guarantee that investors believe the bull market will continue. It is important to analyze the factors driving recent momentum. For example, if analysts consider MicroStrategy as the main driver for Bitcoin's surge to a new all-time high, signs should appear in the futures and margin markets of BTC.
Read more: Bitcoin approaches $100K: Trump considers crypto-friendly CFTC
Is MicroStrategy the only driver behind Bitcoin's price surge?
Speculation that some entities are responsible for purchases above $87,000 increased after MicroStrategy revealed the purchase of an additional 51,780 BTC on November 18. According to SEC filings, the company now holds over $29 billion in Bitcoin and is actively pursuing a plan to raise $21 billion through the issuance and sale of MSTR stock.
Conversely, investors believe that Bitcoin has a greater chance of continuing its price increase if the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF shows early signs of acceptance, including increased exposure from pension funds and large hedge fund managers. However, recent data from November 14 and 15 revealed $771 million in net ETF outflows, as investors decided to take profits after the recent surge.
To understand how professional traders are positioning themselves, analyzing the Bitcoin futures and margin markets is essential. For instance, sustained demand for leveraged BTC futures contracts indicates bullish sentiment, while increased use of hedging shows that whales and arbitrage desks are not confident in the current price momentum.
Five-year quote for the two-month Bitcoin futures contract. Source: laevitas.ch
The two-month Bitcoin futures contract premium (basis rate) surged to 17% on November 18, far exceeding the neutral range of 5% to 10%. This level of optimism was last observed nearly eight months ago, at the end of March, when Bitcoin successfully defended the $64,000 level after two weeks of downward pressure.
To further assess trader sentiment, it is necessary to analyze the BTC margin market. Unlike derivatives contracts, which always require a buyer and a seller, the margin market allows traders to borrow stablecoins to buy Bitcoin spot. Similarly, bearish traders can borrow BTC to create short positions, betting on price declines.
The long-short ratio of Bitcoin on OKX. Source: OKX
Currently, the long-short ratio of Bitcoin on OKX is 14 times leaning towards long (buyers). History shows that overly confident periods have pushed the ratio above 40 times, while levels below 5 times in favor of longs are often considered bearish.
Ultimately, the Bitcoin derivatives and margin markets signal strong bullish momentum, regardless of the concentration of buying activity from MicroStrategy. The lack of significant impact from revisiting the $88,700 level on November 17 further indicates that investors are not ready to exit at the first negative price swing.
Follow me @TinTucBitcoin #tintucbitcoin #Write2Win #btc #binance #binance
