Good evening, friends! Recently, Lao Li has been analyzing the short-term trend with you. Let’s take some time to talk about the future direction and supporting factors of BTC.
The price of BTC will be affected by many factors, for example: the recent rise in Trump's election, the increase in Tether issuance, the rise in the Federal Reserve's money supply, and the fall in Powell's remarks on slowing down interest rate cuts... This is also the main reason for the recent volatility of BTC. It is difficult to accurately predict the next few years, but we can analyze the current trends and possible scenarios. I believe that everyone often hears the phrase "one day in the cryptocurrency circle, one year in the stock market". These eight short words are enough to reflect the high returns of BTC, and also indirectly confirm the large price fluctuations of BTC, but its long-term trend has not changed, and it has been in an upward stage, especially in the current environment of continuous bullish benefits. It will definitely give rise to more funds. This is why Lao Li said that large capital users can hold it with confidence.
At this stage, more and more institutions are beginning to pay attention to and invest in BTC, such as the hoarding of coins by large North American institutions, the continuous issuance of Tether, and the influx of institutional funds, which has provided strong financial support for BTC's current bull market, thereby driving up prices and increasing market visibility and attention in another dimension, as can be seen from the Google data shown a few days ago. This shows that not only institutions, but also retail investors are paying attention to the cryptocurrency market again. With the continued release of the Fed in the future, this data will inevitably increase gradually, which are all potential forces driving BTC's rise in the future. At present, with the continuous expansion and innovation of BTC-related businesses, the application scenarios in the financial field are also expanding. Under the pressure of inflation in the national economy, the total amount of BTC is fixed at 21 million pieces, which has natural anti-inflation properties and will also attract investors to use it as a safe-haven asset, thereby increasing demand and driving up prices. The major economies around the world adopt loose monetary policies, market liquidity increases, and investors will also seek assets such as BTC to hedge or pursue higher returns. This has also been mentioned by Lao Li in previous articles.
At the news level, before Trump was elected, he promised to use BTC as the future strategic reserve funds of the United States. His ally, Republican Senator Cynthia Loomis of Wyoming, also plans to promote relevant bills recently, requiring the United States to purchase 1 million BTC. The Pennsylvania House of Representatives has also proposed a bill to include BTC in its balance sheet. These actions reflect the support of some political forces in the United States for BTC. If the relevant bill is passed, it will inevitably greatly enhance the status and market demand of BTC. Even if it cannot be passed, as long as the world's largest economy does not restrict the currency circle, the subsequent booming development will inevitably become a reality. At this point, do you all remember the halving in April? Historically, BTC has doubled in the following year after each halving. As a lesson from history, the currency circle will also present a six-month bull stage after almost every round of elections, and both of these have been achieved this year.
To sum up the above, Powell's threat theory seems to be a drop in the ocean. In the face of the general trend, any remarks that affect the rise are only temporary. I believe everyone has seen this through the market. Powell's remarks did affect BTC to quickly fall back 3,000 points, and then quickly rose back. The market's fear disappeared within half a day, so the long-term positive news in the past six months is certain.
Back to the short term, the current price of BTC is 91269, and the 9w mark has not yet stabilized. The recent back and forth wash has also trapped many users. Therefore, for users with short orders, Lao Li’s advice has always been not to hold positions overnight, and to keep profits at around 500-800 points. Don’t be greedy when you get them. For long users, just keep them at 1000-1300 points.
From a technical perspective, the daily KDJ RSI is still in the overbought zone. The recent back-and-forth wash and the 3,000-point drop the day before are not enough to digest the market sentiment. The price is above MA7-MA30. The current BTC is still at a high level. From a 4-hour perspective, the strong selling pressure at 92,000 above forms a resistance level, and the support level below needs to focus on around 88,000. Short-term users are advised to use a bullish pullback as an entry strategy, with a bullish bias at 89,000-89,300 and a take-profit at around 90,900-91,200. A profit of a thousand points requires patience, and stop when you’ve reached it.
