As Bitcoin reached a height of 93,000, veteran investors all understood that this was a hurdle, a short-term high point. I published an article on the 13th (Up 10,000 points in 2 days, crazy Bitcoin, can we still catch up?!) using three major data to clearly indicate that a short-term correction is imminent.
However, just late last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that due to the strong US economy, the Fed does not need to "rush" to lower interest rates. After the news came out, BTC immediately accelerated its dive by 3,000 points. As of press time, the market has been fluctuating downward. Currently, there are two views in major communities.
Viewpoint 1: The high point has been reached, and it is recommended to sell. Therefore, most of the decline this time is the reflection of investors with a cost of less than 75,000 selling for profit.
Is this view correct? I think it is correct. For short-term trading, the profits are already huge, so it is indeed right to sell in the short term.
Viewpoint 2: The short-term high has been reached, but the coins are held without moving. Therefore, no matter how low the cost is, do not sell. Long-term holdings do not change the long-term holding strategy due to short-term price changes.
This view is correct, right? I think it is correct. For the long term, what we are looking at is the end point. The fluctuations in the middle do not affect the determination and direction to reach the end point.
So you see, there is no absolute right or wrong, only whether it is suitable for you. What kind of strategy is suitable for you, so in investment, what each individual needs is not a standard product, but a customized investment strategy for his or her own situation.
Most communities and books, including all articles published by KOLs, share the same strategy, a point of view that is applicable to thousands of people. Books and articles can only be standard products for a general group of people. This is an unavoidable fact.
It also confirms and creates the reality that the financial market will never change with seven losses, two draws and one win. After all, non-standard customized private training is exclusive to the rich in any industry.
My assistant, Yao Meier, once reported a situation to me. A college student came to consult me, but he only had 5,000 yuan available. I told Yao Meier that I did not recommend this college student to play with cryptocurrency, but should just study hard.
Next, let's talk about buying and selling. Everyone's situation is different. You may think that earning 500,000 is nothing, but for a young man, an office worker, he can sell it to pay for a down payment on a house, to marry his girlfriend, and can greatly improve his life. Even if he doesn't sell it, he can earn an extra two or three million in 10 years, but now he urgently needs the 500,000 to improve the things he needs.
A private trainee once asked me a question, which is very common.
This is a good question. This is how I shared my opinion with him.
Regarding long-term holdings and short-term fluctuations in currency prices, as Jiushen said, although I think the market will fall 80% in the short term, my decision is not to sell the currency and not get off the market.
Many people cannot understand this decision.
Some people think that I either have no confidence in my own opinions or am fooling others. However, there is no contradiction between an 80% chance of a fall and not selling the coins.
Regarding this round of bull market, let’s assume that my views on the market outlook are as follows:
There is a 20% chance of an increase, a 500% increase. This is normal. We have all seen Bitcoin increase in value, which can easily be several times higher. There is an 80% chance of a decrease, a 50% decrease.
Therefore, we can calculate the expected rate of return of holding and selling coins.
Expected rate of return for holding coins: 20%×500%-80%×50% = 100%-40% = 60%
The expected return from selling coins is: 0%
Although there is a high probability of a drop, the expected rate of return of holding the currency is still higher, so I choose to continue holding the currency.
This counter-intuitive result occurs because, although the probability of Bitcoin rising is small, when it rises it will rise sharply; although the probability of falling is high, at most it will be cut in half, right?
You are sitting on a high-speed train heading for the future. The train suddenly stops. There is an 80% probability that it will reverse and start again after 1 hour. There is a 20% probability that it will suddenly depart. If you miss it, you will never be able to get on again.
Would you get out of your car and play for an hour, betting that the car wouldn't start suddenly?
It is recommended not to gamble, because you won’t be able to make any money in that hour. If the Bitcoin train suddenly starts moving and you happen to get off, you will only be able to watch from now on.
In fact, we have emphasized this point in our previous article on August 4 (when the real reshuffle began). The original text is as follows:
After many rises and pullbacks in the market, most people think and do this: buy at a relatively low point and sell at a relatively high point.
for example:
Bought at around 15,000 in December 2022 and sold at over 20,000 in February 2023.
Bought for 19,000 in March 2023 and sold for around 30,000 in April.
I bought it at around 25,000 in July 2023, sold it at around 35,000 in October, got off the market, and am waiting for a callback.
As a result, the past did not repeat itself. This time the Mavericks came and there was no looking back since October. It kept climbing rapidly until March 2024, when it reached its historical high of about US$73,000.
Most people make a little money from short-term buying and selling high and get off the bus. When the bull market comes and they really make big money, you will not be on the bus.
You can't accept it, but Bitcoin has broken through its historical highs, and all the media are now filled with news that it will soon reach 100,000.
You are thinking that if you don't get on this round of big bull market, you may really have no chance of success.
So it was fomo, and you rushed in at 73,000.
The good times didn’t last long. Not long after you rushed in, Bitcoin began to pull back after rising for five consecutive months. On March 20, it reached 61,000, a pullback of 12,000 points.
You ignored it and continued to hold it. Indeed, on March 28, Bitcoin rose back to 72,000 yuan for the first time.
On April 2, it dropped to 65,000 again, but soon after April 8, it returned to around 72,000 for the second time.
Then on May 7, it fell back to around 57,000, but on June 5, it returned to around 72,000 for the third time.
The story continued to repeat itself, and on July 5, Bitcoin was hit to around 53,000. However, the same script continued on July 29 as it rose for the fourth time to around 72,000 and began to pull back.
At this point, most people basically deeply believe that yesterday’s story will continue to be repeated tomorrow, because the strong pressure levels of 70,000 and 73,000 are deeply engraved in their hearts.
As expected, most people started to get off when Bitcoin rose again to around US$72,000 for the sixth time after this pullback, and then waited for the next low point to pick it up again.
However, you may never get it back, even if it is not this pullback, because the lies told to you by the previous rise and pullback will be repeated continuously, and will make you get off the bus the next time it reaches 70,000 US dollars.
Getting on the bus, getting off the bus, repeating this over and over again, the final result will be that you will never be able to get on the bus when the big bull comes.
Because there will always be a time when there will be a big slope like the one in October last year, and after several months of continuous rise, the bull market may start to take off.
When the sound of the wolf coming is repeated 99 times and seems to be no big deal, the last time the wolf really comes will cut you off completely at the peak of the bull market.
Similarly, before the bull market takes off, the unsteady "smart people" will be washed out through repeated pullbacks, causing them to miss the opportunity to make big money and waste a cycle.
The $70,000 mark is not the end, but the starting point for the bull market. The real reshuffle begins here.
As expected, everyone has just experienced the subsequent market conditions, and you all know it. Investors who bought high and sold low would get off the market at the last time at 72,000, which was November 6, and wait for a pullback to buy it back. As a result, there was no pullback.
The large-scale continuous rise like that in October last year has started again. By November 13, it had risen to 93,000 US dollars in just one week. How would you respond?
You have seen too many cheap Bitcoins, and you bought them back every time. You believed that it would adjust below 72,000 again, and then wait until Bitcoin broke through 100,000 US dollars, 120,000, and 150,000. The final result was that you would never get on the train, and the crazy bull was moving away from you step by step.
Then we can only watch the big bull market and the big gains in this round, wasting the best four years of a cycle in vain.
The Nine Gods told us many years ago that this was destined to happen to most people, year after year, in every cycle.
Over the past ten years of Bitcoin's existence, some people came and left, some left and came back, some came and never left, and some left and never came back.
The vast majority of early Bitcoin players have already gotten off the train, and many people have watched the price of Bitcoin soar without getting on board.
This is good news for us long-term holders, because if they were all on the train now, would the price of the currency still be tens of thousands of dollars as it is now?
There may be many reasons why people hesitate to get on the bus and can't wait to get off, but the most important one is that the vision in their hearts is not big enough.
Vision determines perspective, and perspective determines action.
Walking with Mo and preaching web3, I am Xi Mo, a leader who is committed to leading you into the web3 industry. Turning your main business into a side business, turning your side business into unemployment (financial freedom), and increasing the value of your assets after financial freedom are my goals that I pursue unremittingly and with all my strength.
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