Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted in a speech on November 14 that the central bank may not cut interest rates further, a comment that went against market expectations and triggered a decline in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Powell said that the current strong momentum of the economy allows the Fed to remain cautious and the decision to cut interest rates will depend on the upcoming economic data and outlook. He also pointed out that although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November, there is currently no signal of urgency to further cut interest rates.
This statement directly affected the Bitcoin market. After Powell’s speech, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 2.79% to $86,979. Although Bitcoin has recovered slightly, market confidence in a December rate cut has significantly weakened, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut falling to 59%. This means that the Fed's policy direction will be more dependent on changes in future economic data.
Bitcoin investors have been paying close attention to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions because lower interest rates typically result in lower returns on traditional assets like bonds and time deposits, driving more money into risky assets like Bitcoin. However, as the Federal Reserve takes a cautious approach to the economic outlook, market expectations for future interest rate hikes or maintenance of interest rates are also rising.
In addition, the latest U.S. inflation data slightly exceeded market expectations, with the producer price index (PPI) increasing by 2.4% month-on-month in October, providing the Federal Reserve with more options when adjusting monetary policy. At the same time, some of Trump's policies may have complex effects on economic growth and inflation, especially in terms of tariffs and trade wars, which may also have a profound impact on future interest rate trends.
The Federal Reserve's cautious stance undermines market expectations for further interest rate cuts and may have a lasting impact on the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets.