On Friday (November 15), the US dollar index fell slightly to 106.86 after hitting a high of 107.08 overnight. The strong dollar hit cryptocurrency buying, and Bitcoin fell below $87,000 and fluctuated around $86,840. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell released hawkish signals, emphasizing that there is no rush to cut interest rates, and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations. Gold fell as deep as $2,538, and then rebounded to $2,567. Two Israeli air strikes hit the Syrian capital and suburbs, killing 15 people.

Israel raids Syrian capital and suburbs, killing 15

Israel carried out at least two air strikes on western Damascus and one of the capital's suburbs on Thursday, killing at least 15 people and injuring 16 others, AP News reported, citing the Syrian state news agency.

According to the Syrian news agency, the airstrikes hit the Mazzeh district of Damascus and the suburb of Qusayya in the northwest of the capital, hitting two buildings. An Associated Press reporter at the scene in Mazzeh said a missile hit the basement, causing damage to a five-story building.

The Israeli military said it had attacked the infrastructure and command center of the Syrian Islamic Jihad, "causing significant damage to the terrorist group's command center and its personnel."

The airstrikes hit Damascus and nearby suburbs just before Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was scheduled to meet with representatives of various Palestinian factions at the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital of Mazar. The statement said the military "will continue to take action against Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations as necessary."

Retaliation for the October 7 attack and the ensuing war between Israel and Hamas has spread to the wider region, affecting Lebanon, Syria and leading to conflict between Israel and Iran. The war has left much of Gaza in ruins and killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to local health authorities, which do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Powell's "hawkish" signal: The Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and the economy remains strong

Powell said the U.S. economy has performed "very well" recently, which gives the Fed room to cut interest rates cautiously. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to cut rates," he said in Dallas on Thursday. "The strength of the economy that we're seeing right now gives us the ability to make decisions cautiously."

The Fed began slashing borrowing costs in September with a 50 basis point cut and last week cut its policy rate by another 25 basis points. They have said they are willing to cut rates further as long as inflation continues to slow. Powell's comments appeared to be in line with some of his colleagues who have advocated for a slow approach in future rate cuts.

“We’re on the brink of a pause,” said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial Corp. “Clearly the Fed is tightening policy more than it needs to.”

In a moderated discussion after the speech, Powell added that uncertainty about the neutral rate level, where policy neither stimulates nor suppresses growth, provides another reason for caution. Several Fed officials said they believe the federal funds rate remains in restrictive territory and favor gradual cuts to that level.

“We need to be careful in this situation,” he said. With the Fed nearing a “reasonable neutral range,” he added, “we may slow the pace of action to increase the chances that we get it right.”

Data released earlier this week showed underlying U.S. inflation measures remained firm in October. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.3% for the third straight month.

He predicted that production cuts would be suspended in January next year and would be cut "at most" three times.

US PPI exploded, initial jobless claims were lower than expected, and the US dollar hit a high this year

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 217,000 in the week ended November 9, below expectations of 223,000 and 221,000 in the previous week. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%, with the four-week moving average falling to 221,000.

The overall PPI in the United States increased by 2.4% year-on-year in October, exceeding expectations and significantly higher than the revised increase of 1.9% in September. Excluding food and energy, PPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year, higher than expected and the previous value of 2.9%. From a monthly rate perspective, the overall PPI and core PPI increased by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, in line with expectations, but higher than the previous value.

The dollar retreated after hitting its highest level following the release of labor and inflation data.

US Dollar Technical Analysis

FXStreet analyst Patricio Martín said that the technical analysis of the US dollar index shows that the US dollar index has strong momentum, driven by the strong rise in the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence divergence (MACD). However, as these indicators approach the overbought area, the US dollar index may enter a consolidation period.

The recent surge and subsequent pullback in the US Dollar Index suggests that buyers may be taking profits after a strong rally. This could signal a possible reversal or consolidation in the near term. The 107.00 level has been a strong resistance level and a failure to break through it on a sustained basis could increase the likelihood of a pullback.

Gold Technical Analysis

Bruce Powers, an analyst at FXEmpire, said that gold appears to be trying to build a bottom, falling to a new trend low of $2,537 on Thursday before buyers regained control and generated a strong rebound. This puts gold on track to form a bullish hammer candlestick pattern on the close. Support is located in the previously discussed August high of $2,532, and the 50% retracement level of $2,534.

Also, note that the current low is close to the extended lower trendline of the earlier bull flag formation. In other words, the current low is a reasonable resistance area that could lead to a sustained bullish reversal.

Currently, a decisive rebound above today's high of $2,681 would trigger a bullish reversal. During the current decline, some technical damage was inflicted, with support first breached at the 20-day moving average and then at the 50-day moving average. Subsequently, the price fell below the daily swing low (also monthly low) of $2,602, with a monthly bearish reversal in the October price range.

These indicators all suggest that there could be resistance on the way up, assuming the current lows hold. If Friday's lows are not sustained and breakouts occur, gold prices will likely approach the potential support area between $2,484 and $2,473. The top level is the former resistance level, followed closely by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

It is worth noting that Thursday's decline briefly took gold below its 20-week moving average, currently at $2,556. The 20-week moving average has held support almost 100% of the time since it was recovered during the week of October 16. This provides additional evidence that a low could be in place on Friday, at least temporarily. This has proven to be a viable trend indicator and should continue to do so. This means that a break below Thursday's low would also provide further confirmation of a breakdown of the long-term weekly moving average.

Gold prices need to bounce and sustain above Wednesday's high of $2,619 to have a chance to move higher. Resistance near the internal uptrend also needs to be watched as resistance is currently near yesterday's high. This trendline should provide clues as it is also the bottom support line of the ascending parallel trend channel. This channel shows symmetry in the uptrend. This symmetry is broken when the lower line is broken, and the next downtrend line is slightly lower on the way to the 200-day moving average of $2,398.

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

CoinTelegraph pointed out that the rise of the U.S. dollar to its highest point so far this year has raised concerns about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin bull market, and cryptocurrency analysts have warned traders to be cautious about making excessive speculative bets. Jamie Coutts, chief cryptocurrency analyst at Real Vision, said: "The deteriorating macro backdrop and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar are unfavorable for Bitcoin."

Coutts pointed to his “liquidity framework” chart — which illustrates the historical negative correlation between the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin — to show that Bitcoin’s price is “sensitive to short- to medium-term momentum changes,” while warning traders to “use leverage with caution.”

He said the long-term outlook was "bullish" but charts suggested "caution" in the short term.

Several recent reports have pointed out that Trump's victory is an important factor in the strengthening of the US dollar. Due to Trump's support for tariffs, "there is speculation that US Treasury yields will rise as inflation rises."

During the same period, the price of Bitcoin has risen by nearly 28%. However, the upward trend of safer assets such as the U.S. dollar has caused concern among Bitcoin traders because historically, there is an inverse relationship between the two.

“The dollar index is at resistance and a breakout of that resistance is not good for risk assets,” Coutts warned.

However, he said “this slightly bearish backdrop” could be reversed by positive statements from the Federal Reserve or China’s central bank.