Can I still buy Dogecoin? Dogecoin big data sharing

Let’s start with the conclusion. Dogecoin’s trading volume and price trend have growth potential, but are still accompanied by high volatility and high risks. A conservative leverage ratio (such as 2-5 times) is a more suitable leverage ratio

Trading volume analysis Figure 1

I collected Dogecoin transaction data from 2020 to 2024. Data shows that Dogecoin’s trading volume has shown a significant upward trend during this period, especially in 2024, when it regains market attention. However, despite the increase in trading volume, the current peak has not reached the historical high in 2021, and market sentiment is still in the recovery stage.

Price Forecast Figure 2

I used a regression model to predict the price movement of Dogecoin over the next two weeks. Models suggest prices may show a slow upward trend. However, any prediction of future prices is limited by the accuracy of the model and the unpredictability of market changes, so the prediction is for reference only and cannot be used as the sole basis for investment decisions.

Leverage backtest Figure 3

Based on the predicted future price, I conducted a backtest of leveraged trading and simulated the results of using 1,000 USDT to open a long position with 2x, 5x, 10x, and 15x leverage respectively. The results showed that all positions with more than 5 times leverage were liquidated, while 2 times leverage finally achieved a profit of 8741 USDT. It should be noted that these results are based on predicted prices, and actual returns and risks may differ from backtest results.

Risk Assessment Figure 4

I simulated a liquidation scenario after the Trump trade (November 6th). Assuming that 10 times leverage is used to open orders every hour from November 11 to 15, the results show that among these 161 hours, 17 hours may lead to liquidation. When the leverage was reduced to 5 times, the liquidation only occurred at 2 a.m. on November 13 (New Zealand time). This simulation shows that under the current market environment, the risk of using 5x leverage is relatively small.

$DOGE