$NOT I think I won't be wrong if I say that this issue is the most exciting for all notcoin holders. Especially now, when the coin is, to put it mildly, not in the best condition. I decided to express my opinion on this matter in as much detail as possible. There will be a lot of letters.

Let me start with the fact that notcoin, based on my understanding of the situation, should have updated the ATX already now. Yes, I expected to see a price of 0.03+$ per token somewhere in November, and perhaps even earlier. According to my forecasts, which were fully realized, bitcoin reached its historical maximum in the first half of November, closer to the elections. This would have pulled the TON ecosystem up, and some interesting update from the team could have easily pushed NOT to the numbers I expected. But events occurred that no one could have known about and which, unfortunately, dealt a very noticeable blow to the entire blockchain.

The most unfavorable of them, as you might guess, was the arrest of Pavel Durov. I have already said this, but I will say it again: Tone and all its derivatives collapsed so much solely because Durov was accused by the French authorities. Not because it is a "scam" and a "fraudulent blockchain", as some particularly gifted "analysts" may claim, but because the well-being of the central part of the system was at risk. Of course, there are a number of other reasons, but this is the most significant. It is absolutely absurd to think that NOT is a coin on which all significant drawdowns were bought off in hours and a coin holding a floor of $ 0.011 suddenly and unreasonably collapsed by 40%. Moreover, it collapsed so much that it cannot revive to this day. It simply does not make sense.

Now, closer to the heart of the matter. In order to understand when we will be able to see ATX for NOT, we must first understand when the market will contribute to this. Therefore, I will outline how I see further developments. Despite the fact that the TON ecosystem is less tied to Bitcoin than some other cryptocurrencies, I still proceed from the belief that without bullish sentiment in the market, it will be difficult to update historical maximums.

Since I cannot know what events await us in the next six months to a year, I can only rely on history. I think everyone understands that the development of the crypto market is cyclical. And these cycles are quite obvious. The point here is that in each of the three previous cycles, Bitcoin set a maximum price no earlier than a year after the halving. I am talking specifically about ATX, and not the beginning of the bullish phase of the market, which happens earlier. Therefore, I will risk assuming that we will see ATX for Bitcoin in this cycle no earlier than the spring of 2025. But what is happening now, you ask me. I perceive this as a repetition of the 2021 formation. That is, Bitcoin will update ATX in the "second run". The whole point here is that no matter how much people want endless growth, it still cannot be that Bitcoin flies up, and then just as confidently does NOT fly down. Active growth is always the same active fall. The only question is when it will happen. I see it conditionally like this - 95-100 thousand now - correction to 65-70 - ATX update to 115. From there there is a dump and transition to a bearish phase. My recent failed attempt to short bitcoin was an attempt to catch the beginning of this deepest correction.But I obviously rushed. I didn't expect the market to be overheated so much.

That is, what we see now is only the "first approach". The figures are, of course, approximate.

Accordingly, the first benchmark is spring. Now let's remember another important detail. According to the French authorities, Pavel Durov does not have the right to leave the country until at least March. As I have already said, I believe that this date is final. Pavel has resolved all the problematic issues and his current detention is nothing more than a formality. At the same time, I am sure that his release will be not just bullish news for the entire blockchain, but fundamentally important news. This can be understood at least by the reaction of the ecosystem to the fake news about Durov's release, which swept through Telegram channels at the end of September. I am not even talking about simple logic. Durov is free = no threats to the blockchain = no doubts from investors. The second benchmark appears - March.

Now let's try to put it all together. Green market in spring and bullish news in March. Of course, even after Durov's release, neither ton nor notcoin will fly to ATX at once. This requires a lot of money, and therefore a certain amount of time. We can estimate that this is exactly the second half of spring 2025. If by this time the notcoin team manages to release the promised exchanger inside Telegram, then we will get another strong positive factor for the price direction. Therefore, I assume that we will be able to see ATX for notcoin in April-May 2025.

Perhaps, with my opinion I spoiled the expectations of some of the HODLers. I will emphasize that I am talking specifically about the ATX update, that is, the price above $ 0.00294 per token. I think that we will have time to see some kind of pleasant pump before the end of 2025. Values ​​of 0.013-0.015 are quite possible. The market maker has finally decided to properly take on the TON ecosystem, so there is a high probability that it will really catch + 70-100% of the current NOT price. There are no guarantees of this, but logically everything is heading towards such a development of events.

In the end, I will add that I do not claim to have objective truth. I only expressed my opinion. There are thousands of forecasts now. Mine is one of them.

My letters in bronze Pavel Durov - top1verunvnot.