Bitcoin briefly topped $93,000 last night, sparking market expectations for a challenge to the $100,000 mark by the end of the year. From the perspective of the options market, the open interest in Bitcoin options expiring on December 27 is as high as 11.8 billion U.S. dollars, of which the call option has an obvious advantage. If the Bitcoin price is between 90,000 and 100,000 U.S. dollars by then, The potential profit for bulls will be as high as $4.45 billion. (Preliminary summary: 90,000 magnesium is not the top? Glassnode: Bitcoin profit-taking is lower than the last peak, and there is still room for growth) (Background supplement: Trump nominates Bitcoin advocate Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense, and the Pentagon will Implementing a BTC strategy? ) Last night (13th), the United States released CPI data that was in line with expectations, adding momentum to the rise of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin once shot up to US$93,477.11 last night, soaring by more than US$7,000 during the day, although it has now fallen back to 9 level of US$100,000, but investors are increasingly looking forward to whether the price of Bitcoin can exceed US$100,000 before the end of the year. Bitcoin options expiring on 12/27 are as high as 11.8 billion US dollars. From the perspective of the options market, the open interest (OI) of option contracts that are about to expire on December 27 has reached 11.8 billion US dollars, of which call options OI is $7.9 billion, while put OI is $3.92 billion. Assuming open interest remains unchanged, this huge amount of money could have a huge impact on the market when it expires. Total open interest in Bitcoin options expiring on 12/27｜Source: Laevitas.ch analyst Marcel Pechman analyzed the potential profit differential between calls and puts in different price ranges to assess the strength of the market bias. He concluded that because call OI significantly exceeds put options and current data shows bulls are in the upper hand, this suggests that Bitcoin prices may still have upward momentum through the end of the year into early 2025. Marcel Pechman set several possible price ranges based on the current price trend of Bitcoin: If the price of Bitcoin is between $72,000 and $75,000: the total value of call options is $1.4 billion, the total value of puts is $470 million, and the call options are larger than the puts. potential profit of $930 million. If the price is between $75,000 and $80,000: The call option’s open interest is worth $1.85 billion, the put option is $270 million, and the call advantage is $1.58 billion. If the price is between $80,000 and $85,000: the open interest value of the call reaches $27.400 million, the put option is only $130 million, and the call advantage expands to $2.61 billion. If the price is between $85,000 and $90,000: the total value of the call option is $3.38 billion, the put option is only $96 million, and the call advantage is $3.28 billion. If the price is between $90,000 and $100,000: The total value of the call option climbs to $4.52 billion, while the put option is only $74 million, giving the call an advantage of up to $4.45 billion. As the price of Bitcoin rises, the potential profit from the call option continues to increase, while the impact of the put option gradually weakens. In summary, the logic of this analysis is to infer market sentiment by observing the OI imbalance of option contracts. The bullish forces in the market will profit more if the price remains higher; to avoid this, the bears will need to push the price of Bitcoin lower. Polymarket bets that the probability of breakthrough is 45%. In addition, the on-chain prediction market Polymarket, which accurately hit the election of Trump as president, pointed out that the market bet that the probability of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before November was once more than 50%, and has now fallen back to 45 %. There are US$689,000 of real funds participating in this market, which has certain reference value. Related reports Footprint's October public chain industry research report: Bitcoin leads the market, Layer 2 competition intensifies... 90% of cash is fully invested in BTC) Singapore's AI education company Genius announced a Bitcoin-first strategy, and its stock price soared 66%. Is it an overheating signal? Robinhood and Coinbase occupy the "first and second place" in the US App Store's financial management rankings, and Google's Bitcoin search popularity reaches its peak. "When will Bitcoin break 100,000? The $11.8 billion option will expire. If it is between "90,000 and 100,000," it will be long. Profits as high as 4.45 billion mg. "This article was first published in BlockTempo (Dong District Dongzhi - the most influential blockchain news media).

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