As Bitcoin (BTC) price reaches new all-time highs, QCP Asia traders have warned about the potential risks of the current rally. BTC’s breakout from a long-term sideways trading range, breaking through key resistance levels, has created a great deal of excitement in the market. However, according to QCP Asia’s analysis, the option volatility behind this rally has not reacted strongly due to the large-scale profit taking. This suggests that the market is not taking positions in anticipation of the rally continuing.$BTC
QCP Asia stated that excessive risk was taken in leveraged positions in the recent rise of BTC, and this could lead to a possible correction or downward movement. The extremely high levels of funding rates, especially on the futures side, show that investors are taking risks and their long-term return expectations are inflated. In addition, the fact that futures yields have reached their highest levels in the last seven months indicates that such sharp yield increases cannot be sustained for a long time, based on historical data.
QCP Asia predicts that in the short term, Bitcoin’s spot price may fluctuate at current levels and that volatility may begin to decrease slightly. It is also emphasized that macroeconomic developments that will occur this week may affect price movements in the market. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to be announced on Wednesday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and the speech to be given by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday are seen as important milestones for investors. It is thought that more information will be obtained, especially about the 25 basis point interest rate cut expected in December.
QCP Asia notes that while it has a structurally positive outlook on Bitcoin in the long term, volatility could increase in the short term and the price could potentially fluctuate at current levels. It is stated that this week’s macroeconomic developments, especially in light of new information on interest rate policies, could have an impact on the market.
