During the weekend online discussion, many readers asked questions about the potential of ORDI.
My assessment of ORDI's potential is based on two dimensions: short-term and long-term.
If we talk about the short term, that is, within this cycle (from now to next year), I believe ORDI still has room for growth.
As long as Bitcoin continues to rise and maintain this momentum until next year, the new assets that have emerged in its ecosystem in this cycle (including head inscriptions, NFTs, etc.) will most likely have their day of asset rotation. ORDI will still perform well by then, but it is hard to predict how high it will rise.
I have said in previous articles that ORDI can probably be seen as a leverage for Bitcoin.
According to current data (https://www.coingecko.com/), in the past 7 days, Bitcoin has risen by about 15%, and ORDI has risen by 22%, slightly higher than Bitcoin, but the effect of leverage is not obvious. I believe that in the future, when sector rotation occurs and FOMO emotions are triggered, the effect of leverage will be more obvious.
But in the long run, ORDI's potential depends on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
If Bitcoin relies solely on the concept of "digital gold", its own room for growth is limited, and ORDI's room for growth will also be limited. If Bitcoin can develop an application ecosystem and become an application platform, its room for growth will be greatly expanded, and ORDI's potential will also be greatly expanded.
Regarding the relationship between Bitcoin and ORDI, I cited the example of the development of our country’s art market during an online exchange.
From the 1950s to the 1990s, our country's economy was in a long-term state of depression. At that time, our country's art market (including ceramics, calligraphy and paintings, etc.) was also in a long-term price trough, and its status was quite different from that of the art markets in developed countries in the world.
After the 1990s, with the take-off of our country's economy, the prices of Chinese artworks also began to soar. The growth rate of many sectors was no less than that of real estate, and the prices gradually caught up with those of internationally renowned artworks.
The fundamental reason lies in economic development. After the economy prospers, artworks and collectibles will naturally receive some of the outflow of funds and benefit from it.
Similarly, in the Bitcoin ecosystem, assets like ORDI are equivalent to artworks or collectibles with historical value in this ecosystem.
Therefore, the long-term potential of ORDI depends on the long-term potential of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Judging from the development of Bitcoin ecology in this period, although I still have some hope for the development of Bitcoin ecology applications, my concerns about it are also increasing day by day. Because ecological competition is cruel, there is not much time left for the development of Bitcoin application ecology. If we miss the precious time window, even if the infrastructure of Bitcoin ecology is ready, I am afraid that developers will not focus their main efforts on the Bitcoin platform.
Therefore, if the Bitcoin ecosystem still cannot develop its own innovative applications in the more than one year from now to next year, the application development of the Bitcoin ecosystem may be in danger.
Based on this judgment, I will still keep ORDI and other Bitcoin ecosystem assets. But at some point next year, when the price of Bitcoin rises to a certain level, regardless of whether I will consider selling my Bitcoin at that time, I will also likely sell ORDI and other Bitcoin ecosystem assets, and ultimately only keep Bitcoin and a very small number of NFTs that I particularly like in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
