Usually, the market on weekends basically moves sideways, waiting for the U.S. stock market to open on weekdays to show direction. However, the past weekend was very lively; the bulls were really strong, not allowing for a moment's calm. First, this morning (the 11th), BTC surged ahead, rising sharply and breaking through the $80,000 mark. By this morning, it had reached $81,000! Near noon, Bitcoin reached a new high again, refreshing the price to $81,846!
Currently, after Bitcoin's surge, there are no obvious signs of retracement, and the price remains oscillating around the $80,000 mark. Although there may be a situation of falling below $80,000 in the short term, it will quickly be successfully reclaimed by a big bullish candle, which indirectly indicates that the bullish trend is unstoppable!!
In the attached indicators, the MACD's volume remains in an orderly state with continuous expansion, and there are no signs of a change in the upward opening of the running channel! There is still a demand for further upward movement! Moreover, in a bull market, the word 'top' is never spoken! There is plenty of space above!
However, it is worth mentioning that there is still a risk of correction in the current market. Whether chasing high altcoins, Bitcoin, or Ethereum now carries relatively high risks, making it easy to get stuck at the peak; currently, refuse FOMO!
What are the driving forces behind the new highs?
Continuous inflow into ETFs
With Trump's victory, there has been a continuous influx of large amounts of capital into BTC ETFs recently.
Not only accompanied by a new high in daily capital inflow but also a new high in open interest. The logic is clear: after Trump takes office, there is a high likelihood of the emergence of 'crypto gold,' and American support for crypto will become increasingly strong. For 'big players' in traditional finance, their likelihood of allocating funds to crypto may increase; the BTC ETF has become the most convenient channel for investing in crypto, and for other U.S. stock investors, the BTC ETF will also become very attractive under Trump's endorsement.
Trump's victory
If Trump can follow through on his campaign promises and provide a more lenient development space for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, then more funds will flow into the cryptocurrency market.
Currently, as the sentiment from Trump's election victory continues to ferment, the market is steadily rising, which is substantively positive for the cryptocurrency space, making the entire crypto community boil over, and the market has shifted from a state of fear to excitement.
Interest rate cut
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, significantly exceeding expectations, and Bitcoin also surged in response. In last week's November meeting, a 25 basis point cut was confirmed, which is generally understood by the market as a positive factor, as the starting point of the last bull market was the rate cut in March 2020.
Historical data for November
In addition to the data, add a bit of ceremonial feeling.
According to data, Bitcoin's investment returns in the fourth quarter after halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020 have performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. Among them, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and in November 2020, it was 42.95%. The return rate this month is still worth looking forward to.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin rose by 7.35% in September this year, marking its best historical performance; historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has been able to rise until the end of the year.
After dawn, history will arrive.
A few days ago, the article mentioned that there would be a correction, but will it still reverse to pick up people now?
At this point, we need to understand that the market does not complete its movements in one day. If Bitcoin were to surge all at once to $100,000 in the next few days, then the market would be in danger, as there would likely be a bubble; the higher the position, the more people hesitate to enter, including myself. A correction is necessary; in a frenzied bull market, there will be both rises and falls. A temporary correction is for better upward movement, and after an adjustment, the upward trend should be restored. That is a healthy market.
As for when the correction will occur and where it might drop to, it is essential to closely monitor the market and the fear and greed index. The fear and greed index is currently approaching 80, and historically, whenever the value exceeds 80, Bitcoin has dropped by at least 20% within two weeks. This is historical data and is for reference only.
What needs to be done now is to hold the chips in hand and not to change positions randomly, as changing wrong can easily affect one's mindset. If you have a heavy position, reduce it in a timely manner at high levels. After this market cycle ends, take a good look at the coins you hold; if they still don't rise at this stage, then this bull market may just be like that. Be decisive about what can't be held.
Bull market traps? Everything has just begun!
Bear markets do not declare a bottom, and bull markets do not declare a top. We are still in the main upward wave stage and there is no need to guess the top. Moreover, in the market, predictions from anyone are merely speculative behavior. For retail investors like us, we must always maintain a respectful attitude towards the market, sit steadily, and comprehensively consider risk management according to our own situation, rather than worrying about the market's flash crash like a small-town woman, dealing with trivial matters. We must manage risks well, refuse FOMO, and trust in the power of cycles, believing that our industry is still a sunrise industry, and everything has just begun!
Regarding altcoins, if you plan to hold long-term and are not worried about the possible correction, then you can boldly buy in now (but also control your position, it's best to operate in batches and try not to go all in) or wait for a correction to buy those projects you were very optimistic about before. Although the election has brought a catalyst that drives the market to soar, the real altcoin season has not yet erupted, and currently, altcoins are not at the stage of large-scale explosion. However, if you are not stable in your mindset or are easily scared of loss, then it might be better to wait a bit; having USDT in hand means you won't panic.
In the long term, the bell of the new era has already rung. Perhaps perspectives on macro, political, military, and economic issues vary from person to person, but the funding operation model and future positioning of the reservoir have already been made clear. It needs to be reiterated that the shift in the flow of funds has led to an increasingly weak correlation between BTC and the funds of on-site altcoins. The so-called comprehensive altcoin season, under the backdrop of high penetration, is left with only two paths: extremely loose liquidity and innovative play. Either a substantial amount of real money will flood in, causing the entire market to FOMO, or you must have something truly outstanding, like SUI.
The key focus for the market can first be on the opportunities before January next year (when Trump officially takes office as president). Perhaps Bitcoin really has a chance to challenge the $100,000 position. As for the much-anticipated new round of altcoin season, no one can accurately judge or predict the specific timing; continuing to blindly guess, it might happen in the first or second quarter of next year (geopolitical issues may ease further by then, combined with the Fed's ongoing interest rate cuts), but it is highly unlikely that we will see a comprehensive altcoin season like the last bull market.
Lastly, it is worth mentioning that in the later stages of a bull market, the market will be filled with various enticing opportunities and FOMO emotions. However, for retail investors like us, this often means greater challenges. I wish everyone good luck.
