Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking records as a weekend BTC price surge delivers nearly $82,000 to start the week.
Bitcoin traders see BTC price upside continuing despite some concerns that a retracement may reach frightening proportions.
Macroeconomic data releases continue to come thick and fast as United States Presidential Election fever gives way to the ongoing inflation narrative.
After months of frustration, Bitcoin traders are finally seeing BTC/USD catch up with gold.
BTC price gains may be impressive, but in percentage terms, there is still a long way to go before November 2024 matches historical average gains.
Mainstream interest is picking up, but just like in Bitcoin’s last halving year, all-time highs have not opened the floodgates to mass retail inflows — yet.
Bitcoin traders diverge over future BTC price trend
Having nearly reached $82,000, Bitcoin is starting the week with bang as BTC price discovery takes hold.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows new all-time highs of $81,888 hitting on Bitstamp after the weekly close.
This naturally became the highest ever in Bitcoin’s history, itself clocking in at over $80,000 after a weekend of brisk gains.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
While some fear that a major retracement is on the cards, an overall sense of bullishness remains the driving force among traders.
“Passive sellers still pretty active around $81.5K. Alts lacking bid momentum so far as well,” popular trader Skew wrote in one of his latest posts on X.
Skew suggested that the start of the TradFi trading week in Europe and the United States would further bulls’ cause, potentially validating the “out-of-hours” weekend jump to new highs.
“Bids moving higher again but still lacking the volume & momentum like previous moves up,” he observed about exchange order book liquidity.
“Probably coiling into EU/US hours.”
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Longer-timeframe perspectives favor even more intense upside, with market participants flagging the seven-month consolidation phase seen on BTC/USD after its old all-time high in March.
“Bitcoin gave everyone a chance to buy breaks from Mar-Oct '24,” veteran trader Peter Brandt argued at the weekend.
“When BTC decides to ‘Mark-Up,’ it never looks back.”
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X
Brandt offered a BTC price target of $125,000 by the end of the year, having previously seen $130,000 coming only in Q3 2025.
The weekly close, meanwhile, satisfied conditions for Bitcoin to enter the “parabolic phase” of its current bull run.
CPI week takes over from US Election fever
Plenty of US macroeconomic data will keep risk-asset traders on their toes in the coming days, with the Federal Reserve adding nuance to financial policy expectations.
The key events are the October print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), both key inflation gauges.
The Fed is currently grappling with mixed signals when it comes to the US battle against inflation, having cut interest rates by 0.25% last week amid weak employment.
More jobless claims data will come on Nov. 14, along with PPI and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the economic outlook.
“Markets will also continue to digest earnings season, the election outcome, and the Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter forecast ahead of what it called a “very busy week.”
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees another 0.25% cut coming at the Fed’s next dedicated meeting on Dec. 18.
“Overall, investor sentiment and risk appetite is historically strong right now,” Kobeissi continued in an X thread on Nov. 9.
“As we head into 2025, it's clear that the economy is slowing and fiscal policy is uncertain.”
It added that despite the S&P 500 notching its own record highs of 6,000 points last week, such strong performance is “never sustainable,” pointing to year-to-date gains of nearly 50%.
Bitcoin brings back gold competition
Longtime crypto market participants now see Bitcoin attempting to play a game of catch-up — not with stocks, but with gold.
XAU/USD began rising in advance of Bitcoin while BTC/USD Languished below previous all-time highs from March.
Uploading a comparative chart to X on Nov. 11, Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, saw bulls now rapidly redressing the balance.
“Here we go. Shared this chart a few times - Bitcoin lags Gold a few months,” he told followers.
“When the breakout happens, expect rapid repricing.”
Bitcoin vs. gold chart. Source: Charles Edwards/X
Expectations are being boosted by a Bitcoin institutional investment milestone accompanying the BTC price breakout. Last week, inflows to asset management giant BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) surpassed those of its gold ETF.
As commentators noted, the gold ETF has been on the market around twenty years longer.
Source: Bitcoin for Freedom
Last week, trading firm QCP Capital suggested that the combination of Bitcoin ETF inflows and spot price performance could end up having a snowball effect.
“This sustained bullishness in BTC could also create a feedback loop, with rising ETF inflows boosting BTC prices, which, in turn, attracts more retail capital and systematic fund buying as volatility declines,” it told subscribers to its Telegram channel.
A November like any other?
At around 16%, Bitcoin’s month-to-date performance in November 2024 is nothing out of the ordinary.
Despite notching repeat all-time highs throughout the month, so far, BTC/USD has a long way to go to make this November stand out.
BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass puts the situation in context — for instance, November 2020, Bitcoin’s last halving year, saw gains of 43%.
2017, also a year in which Bitcoin hit an all-time high in the eleventh month of the year, brought 53% November upside, while 2013 dwarfs the rest with giant 450% returns. Bitcoin’s worst November since then was in 2018, when it lost nearly 37%.
Thanks to such wide variations, “average” November returns stand at around 43%, leading already bullish traders to forecast more upside before the monthly close.
“$BTC next area of interest is $93k before pullback and consolidation and then $121k to complete the wave (5),” one such angle from popular trader Mikybull Crypto, who employed Fibonacci retracement levels, stated on Nov. 11.
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Mikybull Crypto/X
Six-figure BTC price predictions are already increasingly common, with the deadline for the historic event differing between sources. As Cointelegraph reported, Q1 2025 is a popular target.
Crypto educator Karan Singh Arora described $100,000 as “inevitable” by the end of the year.
“$100k $BTC is less than $20k away,” fellow trader Johnny noted.
“Kinda crazy how far we’ve come.”
Mainstream mood echoes 2020 BTC price breakout
When it comes to mainstream consumer interest in Bitcoin, beyond institutions, appetite remains firmly absent.
The latest data from Google Trends highlights the fact that, like in 2020, consumers are only beginning to notice BTC price performance again.
“Recent spike up but still early,” popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 summarized on X.
“For comparison December 2020 (price discovery above $20k) closed at 35, so quite similar.”
Worldwide Google search data for “Bitcoin” (screenshot). Source: Google Trends
Previously, Cointelegraph reported on several metrics used to determine the peak of Bitcoin bull markets based on mainstream engagement. So far, none has reached “classic” blow-off top territory.
The popularity of the trading app of largest US exchange Coinbase, for example, remains far from the number one spot on Apple’s AppStore.
“Starting to move up now, aswell as Robinhood, but lets see if this move up is sustained. *The app reached no.1 in December 2017, April 2021, and November 2021,” Bitcoindata21 noted.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
