Has the 'crazy bull market' returned, and what hidden worries remain for the future?
Written by: BlockBeats
GSR research analyst Toe Bautista stated that after Trump wins the U.S. election, many projects have been waiting for the opportunity from the perspective of altcoins, observing the issuance of other tokens and the election results. He also believes that if macro conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin's price may rise further. 'It's easy to foresee that Bitcoin will reach $80,000, whether in Q1 next year or by the end of the month.'
After Trump was elected president, everyone expected BTC to quickly break through $80,000, but no one expected that this $80,000 would arrive so quickly.
Micro Strategy holdings
MicroStrategy, as a company that holds a large amount of BTC, currently holds a total of 252,220 Bitcoins, with a total purchase cost of approximately $9.9 billion, an average purchase price of approximately $39,266, and the current total value of Bitcoin holdings is $20.177 billion.
ETF inflow
ETFs attracted significant attention at their launch, mainly due to the influx of new funds, and Bitcoin prices created new historical highs. However, soon the total funds in ETFs began to see net outflows, and market sentiment began to decline. In contrast, recently, BTC ETFs have continued to see significant inflows.
This not only coincides with the highest net inflow of funds in a single day but also sets a new high for open positions. The logic is clear: after Trump takes office, it is very likely that there will be a 'crypto golden era,' and the political force in the U.S. supporting crypto will grow stronger. For traditional financial 'institutions,' their likelihood of allocating funds to crypto may increase, and BTC ETFs have become the most convenient channel for investing in crypto. For other U.S. stock investors, BTC ETFs will also become very attractive under Trump's support.
Interest rate cuts
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, significantly exceeding expectations, and Bitcoin also surged in response. The November meeting confirmed a 25 basis point cut, which was generally interpreted by the market as a positive factor, as the previous bull market began with a rate cut in March 2020.
November historical data
In addition to data, a bit of ceremony is also important.
According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin has historically performed well in the fourth quarter after halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with investment returns of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. Among them, the return rate in November 2016 was 5.42%, and in November 2020, it was 42.95%. The return rate for this month is still worth looking forward to.
Notably, Bitcoin recorded a 7.35% increase in September of this year, marking its best performance historically; historically, whenever Bitcoin has risen in September, it has been able to rise through to the end of the year.
After the dawn, history will arrive.
What do traders think about the future direction of Bitcoin?
PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 2025
PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which enjoys a high reputation in the crypto industry for its unique asset scarcity and price relationship model. His analysis focuses on the long-term growth potential of Bitcoin's value, especially regarding price fluctuations after halving events. His latest prediction indicates that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may experience an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to showcase the price development direction of Bitcoin under different market scenarios.
In predictions made months ago, PlanB provided specific numbers based on his S2F model:
November: Trump wins the election, and Bitcoin's price reaches $100,000. Trump wins the election, and PlanB believes that Bitcoin will experience a major turning point. He points out that Trump taking office could bring friendly policies towards cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current 'war' against cryptocurrencies by the Biden/Harris administration, especially the policy checks on regulators like Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren will cause Bitcoin's price to rise directly to $100,000.
December: ETF funds surge into the market, and Bitcoin skyrockets to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trump's victory will clear the obstacles for Bitcoin ETF approvals, leading to significant inflows into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents acceptance and recognition by mainstream financial markets as well as investor trust, further driving the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.
January 2025: The crypto industry flows back to the U.S., and Bitcoin rises to $200,000. With the Trump administration's openness to cryptocurrency policy, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may return their businesses to the U.S. PlanB expects this to create significant market demand effects, pushing Bitcoin's price to $200,000.
February 2025: The 'Power Law' team takes profits, and the price falls back to $150,000. The February retracement is a forecast of adjustments in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that profit-taking by investors will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after reaching a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of price increase.
From March to May 2025: Globalization trend for Bitcoin, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects countries like Bhutan, Argentina, and Dubai to successively adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, and in April, under Trump's influence, the U.S. will also initiate a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Following this, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, further pushing Bitcoin to rise to $500,000.
June 2025: Driven by artificial intelligence, price reaches $600,000. In June, PlanB proposes the hypothesis that artificial intelligence begins to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He expects that as AI participates in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive up prices, pushing Bitcoin past $600,000.
From July to December 2025: FOMO fades, and the price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the market's FOMO sentiment will begin to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin not only becomes a mainstream asset reserve but also a must-have allocation for global investors.
2026-2027: Market adjustments and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects Bitcoin's price to retrace from $1 million to $500,000, entering a distribution phase, and by 2027, the market will enter a bear market with Bitcoin's price expected to drop to $200,000.
PlanB concludes that the key to this prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He points out that scarcity will be a core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin's price is likely to see leapfrog growth driven by the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to solidify its position as 'digital gold' among global investors.
The key to PlanB's prediction lies in Bitcoin's scarcity value. He points out that investors favor scarcity, and there are essentially three choices for scarcity today: real estate (S2F 100, market cap $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market cap $20 trillion), or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market cap $1 trillion). Thus, Bitcoin's scarcity will be a core factor driving asset prices, just like real estate and gold.
PlanB presents an opposing scenario where if Harris wins, he believes this will represent 'the end of Western civilization' and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He predicts that the crypto industry will come under further pressure under the regulations of Gensler and Warren, leading to more stifling actions and potentially facing stricter tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasizes that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment; its value will continue to be driven by global demand for scarcity.
Alex Krüger: BTC spot is dominant on election night
Economist, trader, and advisor Alex Krüger from Argentina believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:
Trump's victory: Bitcoin's year-end target price is $90,000. Krüger believes that after Trump's victory, Bitcoin's price will rapidly rise to $90,000 before the end of the year, giving a 55% chance of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin's price will 'soar rapidly' because the market has partly anticipated the positive impact of Trump's victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there remains a certain degree of price undervaluation, and the market's rapid response will manifest shortly after the news is confirmed.
The Giver: Mid-term drop after the election
The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He is currently engaged in private equity investments in special situations, providing a different perspective. The Giver's strategy is more conservative compared to Krüger and PlanB, focusing on the short term. He believes that the election-driven Bitcoin surge is more of a temporary phenomenon rather than a long-term trend. This view particularly emphasizes the effects of market liquidity and short-term events and points out that Bitcoin may face a decline adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:
The driving force behind this Bitcoin surge comes from event-driven 'non-sticky' buyers, namely some short-term speculators seeking to hedge election risks, rather than from an overall trend. These buyers are unlikely to hold Bitcoin for the long term; once the election dust settles, they may quickly exit the market. Therefore, this influx of funds lacks 'stickiness,' and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.
The poor performance of altcoins contrasts with Bitcoin's concentration. In his view, the inflow of funds mainly focuses on Bitcoin and has not broadly flowed into altcoins, leading to a lackluster performance of altcoins. This suggests that the current flow of funds is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool rather than overall positive sentiment for the entire crypto market.
The Giver expects that in the coming week, Bitcoin's open contracts and positions will continue to be crowded, even reaching new highs. He points out that this 'right-side effect' could lead to a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices but is limited by the constrained market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024, making it unlikely to sustain into the following year. This short-term effect increases the likelihood of Bitcoin prices peaking before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is insufficient to support a long-term upward trend.
Based on this judgment, The Giver presents a relatively aggressive investment strategy: based on the current market environment, he suggests going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream coins and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before election day, but regardless of who wins, a mid-term drop is expected after the results are announced.
Markus: Long BTC and short SOL hedging strategy
Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst from Matrixport and 10X Research, who gained rapid attention in the investment community for his high accuracy in predicting Bitcoin's $1 trillion market cap months ago.
Markus's latest analysis is based on the latest signal model from 10X Research, which has an accuracy rate of 73% to 87%, typically realized within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if Bitcoin's price continues to follow historical trends, it could rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% within a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. According to this calculation, Bitcoin's price could exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach about $140,000 by April 29, 2025.
Regarding election results, Markus analyzed the influence of different election outcomes on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Markus predicts that after Trump's inauguration, Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also see similar increases. He believes that Trump's victory will bring a more favorable policy environment for cryptocurrencies, likely driving the market up.
In this scenario, Markus suggests the strategy of 'going long on Bitcoin and shorting Solana' to hedge against the uncertainties brought by the election. However, Markus also points out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, it will increase market uncertainty, potentially leading to increased volatility in Bitcoin.
In the event of a disputed election result or Harris's victory leading to a short-term drop in Bitcoin, Markus emphasizes that Bitcoin may still show strong resilience, thus advising investors to seize the buying opportunity after a short-term drop.
From the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while long-term holders' holdings decreased. This dynamic usually appears when prices are about to break through important thresholds. The total open contract volume in the Bitcoin options market has skyrocketed to $22.5 billion in 2024, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. The 25 Delta skew of Bitcoin is at the lower end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), suggesting strong bullish sentiment.
Thielen also pays special attention to the impact of MicroStrategy's stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He points out that MicroStrategy's stock has risen 33% since October, and the surge in its shares has produced a 'tail wagging the dog effect' on Bitcoin prices. The large-scale short covering has further boosted market bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.
According to a Cointelegraph report on October 25, Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, Bitcoin's price could soar to $125,000 by the end of the year.
Kendrick's model shows that on election day (November 5), Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000. In the case of Trump's victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to immediately rise by about 4%, with the possibility of a further 10% increase in the following days, driven by rising market confidence and a more lenient regulatory environment.
Meanwhile, a research report from another brokerage, Bernstein, points out that if Trump wins the election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs later this year, potentially hitting $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may anticipate regulatory tightening, causing BTC prices to fluctuate within the range of $30,000 to $40,000.
The future we can currently foresee is that BTC has already broken through its all-time high (ATH), and from a technical perspective, there are no 'pressure points' for future price increases; BTC has not disappointed any spot holder.
However, there are still about two months until Trump officially takes office. Will a new narrative emerge during this 'narrative vacuum' period to lead to further price increases? Will Trump fulfill his previous promises after taking office? Let's wait and see.
