Original author: Ice Frog
Reprint: Daisy, Mars Finance
Introduction
It has been two years since Aptos' first airdrop. After all, during the last round of airdrops, simply minting an NFT on the testnet could yield thousands of dollars in airdrop rewards. As the Aptos ecosystem becomes more robust and activities more frequent, the second-phase airdrop should also be on the way. This article will analyze the possibility, timing, and participation strategies for Aptos' second-phase airdrop from multiple dimensions.
I. Overview of Aptos Airdrop
Aptos' first phase airdrop scale: 23,454,750 APT (accounting for 3%)
Community Token Pool: 510M APT (accounting for 51%) Already used community tokens: about 130M APT Remaining usable tokens: about 380M APT
Current token price: $9.6
Current market capitalization: 5 billion USD
From the perspective of token distribution, the project team places significant emphasis on the community, with a high airdrop ratio of 51%. The first phase only provided a 3% appetizer.
There are still many airdrops waiting to be distributed. Such a high airdrop ratio inevitably raises expectations for the second round of airdrops.
II. Analysis of the Possibility of the Second Phase Airdrop
Sufficient token reserves
The Aptos Foundation and Aptos Labs still have approximately 380M APT tokens to be released, unlocked linearly on a monthly basis. The ample token reserves provide a foundational condition for the second-phase airdrop. It is worth noting that these tokens will be gradually unlocked over ten years, indicating that the team has long-term plans for the ecosystem.
Ecological Development Demand
From the perspective of ecological development status, Aptos is in a critical expansion period. Aptos' strategic leader Neil mentioned on Twitter: "Aptos 2024 = Move + DeFi/RWA + AI," meaning that in 2024, efforts will be focused on these four sectors. These four sectors are the main melody, and after this melody reaches the expected level, a second-round airdrop incentive may follow to stimulate the ecosystem.
Move
First, let's start with Move. Move is the underlying programming language and the foundation of the project. To carve beautiful patterns on this foundation, we naturally need craftsmen, and those craftsmen currently sculpting on Aptos are developers. According to statistics from Electric Capital, at the beginning of this year, the number of monthly active developers on Aptos was about 500, with a total of over 5M code submissions, making it the largest Move developer community at the beginning of the year. With Sui's explosive growth in memes and games, the number of developers surged, achieving a reversal; although the overall number of developers is lower than competitors, it has seen relatively stable growth. Currently, there are 835 active developers, representing a growth of about 37% over two years.
DeFi
DeFi is experiencing strong growth, and Aptos' current TVL has quietly entered the top ten among all public chains, currently ranking eighth, surpassing established public chains like Polygon, Avalanche, and competitor Sui. The TVL has reached 1.617 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 2840% from 55.23 million in 2023.
Since August of this year, daily active users have surged from 630,000 to 6.73 million, a tenfold increase in just three months. On-chain transaction numbers and active address counts show a growth trend, indicating an increasing level of project activity, which could be a positive signal for the airdrop. Additionally, user growth is an important indicator; if Aptos' user base continues to grow, it suggests that the project's appeal is strengthening, which may also indicate the proximity of the second-phase airdrop.
RWA
(RWA) As everyone knows, this involves integrating real-world assets (such as credit, funds, luxury goods, artworks, real estate, etc.) onto the blockchain. This sector has always been an important narrative and is recognized as the best channel to drive web3 user growth, with significant future potential. Below is a brief summary of Aptos' important achievements in the RWA field.
Funds:
Recently, global asset management giant Franklin (the second largest tokenized fund by market capitalization and the only fund using blockchain technology for trading processing) has partnered with the Aptos Foundation to launch the on-chain money market fund FOBXX (the FOBXX fund invests in low-risk U.S. government securities, including fixed, floating, and variable rate securities, as well as repurchase agreements fully collateralized by U.S. government securities or cash).
Real Estate:
Propbase is a real estate trading market and the only real estate tokenization company operating in Southeast Asia. What makes Propbase unique is that token holders can trade assets directly on the platform. Its tokenization process is an end-to-end solution that integrates traditional real estate with blockchain technology. This end-to-end solution showcases Aptos' potential to transform traditional illiquid assets into easily tradable digital tokens, promising to revolutionize the real estate investment landscape and attract significant capital into the market.
Treasury Bonds:
As the first company to tokenize U.S. Treasury bonds, Ondo Finance's collaboration with Aptos is highly innovative. Ondo is rooted in the traditional finance sector, and its collaboration with BlackRock precisely addresses the growing institutional interest in RWA. This has successfully helped Aptos become the premier choice for institutional-level RWA solutions. With Ondo's financial expertise, BlackRock's potential support, and Aptos' outstanding technology, this collaboration helps seamlessly connect traditional finance with blockchain, bringing new opportunities for the integration of on-chain assets with real-world assets. The above highlights just three representative RWA projects that Aptos collaborates with, and the integration with projects like Ondo Finance and Propbase demonstrates Aptos' potential to fundamentally change asset tokenization, from U.S. Treasury bonds to real estate. This not only proves Aptos' capabilities but also paves the way for broader applications of blockchain technology in traditional finance. Currently, Aptos has accumulated significant advantages in this sector.
AI
Collaborating with traditional giant Microsoft to develop AI, Microsoft has strong capabilities in artificial intelligence and cloud computing, while Aptos Labs also has unique advantages in blockchain. The combination of both is a powerful alliance. Currently, Aptos can process up to 13,000 transactions per second and can complete them in sub-seconds. This performance is crucial for AI-related applications that require rapid data processing and verification. The collaboration is expected to reshape the digital experience landscape, making Web3 more accessible and friendly, while ensuring high security and performance standards. An AI chatbot has already been launched, providing greater imaginative space for the future integration of AI and blockchain. Based on the above information, this year's guidelines for Move + DeFi/RWA + AI sectors are performing well, especially in DeFi/RWA sectors, which, after achieving phased results, may plan to launch a second-round airdrop, further enhancing the prosperity of the entire ecosystem.
III. Market Signals
Recently, multiple signals suggest that the second-phase airdrop may be imminent:
From the perspective of the project team:
Bull market expectations suggest that Trump's election may coincide with the start of a bull market. Conducting airdrops in a bull market environment has many advantages: market sentiment is high, and investor confidence is strong. Airdrops during this time face relatively little selling pressure, and their price trends are also relatively strong, bringing considerable returns to community members. At the same time, the project can further expand its influence, achieving a win-win situation for both the community and the project.
From the perspective of time/ecosystem development:
Aptos just celebrated its two-year anniversary last month. Similarly, the project OP, which also had its first airdrop in 2022, had only a 9-month gap between its first and second airdrop, thus meeting the conditions for an airdrop from a timing perspective.
Infrastructure improvements: After two years of in-depth cultivation, Aptos' TVL has entered the top ten, and the DeFi sector continues to grow. Aptos has matured in terms of underlying technology and ecological protocols, sufficient to handle the influx of new users brought by the airdrop while ensuring stable and efficient system operation.
The project team has been very active recently.
Recently, the project team has been increasingly active in interactions with many of its projects. Besides retweeting milestones of project success, they have also supported their memes and games, some of which may be internally incubated projects. Once these projects mature, they may reasonably distribute airdrops to their own wallets.
Analyzing from the perspective of token unlock status:
Currently, we are in a time window with relatively low token unlock pressure. This means that conducting airdrops during this period will not lead to market supply imbalances due to a large number of token unlocks, thus helping to maintain token price stability and allowing airdrop activities to proceed in a more orderly manner, avoiding adverse impacts on projects and investors due to excessive market volatility.
IV. Scale and Qualifications
Airdrop Scale
Considering the scale of the first-phase airdrop (23.45 million tokens) and the current market conditions, the second-phase airdrop scale is estimated to be between 15 million and 20 million APT, valued at approximately 130 to 180 million USD based on the current token price. With the increase in active users within the ecosystem, the number received per individual address should be lower than the first airdrop.
Participation Qualifications
Based on Aptos' development strategies and ecological priorities, the following interactions may be included in the airdrop: participation in DeFi protocols (Thala, Amnis, Aries Markets, etc.), NFT trading activity, early contributions to ecological projects, on-chain interaction frequency, and diversity.
V. Conclusion
Based on existing data and signs, Aptos already possesses many favorable conditions for launching the second-phase airdrop:
Trump's inauguration marks the beginning of a bull market, and market sentiment has reached its peak.
Significant progress in key areas such as Move, DeFi/RWA, and AI meets the ecological needs for the second-phase airdrop, and Aptos is in a critical expansion period. The second-phase airdrop is expected to further promote ecological prosperity.
Factors such as timing and infrastructure improvements have created a suitable opportunity for the airdrop, and the project's recent frequent interactions also hint at the approaching second-phase airdrop.
In summary, the conditions for Aptos' second-phase airdrop are basically maturing, and the airdrop may arrive in the near future. However, the specific timing and rules still require further observation. Everyone has their own strategies for participation, so this article will not elaborate on that.
