Yes, I'm focused on #Bitcoin's price action.
I'm a technician, so that's quite literally what I do.
But I'm also focused on what's happening in the stock market, observing the broad-based participation across sectors, industries, and themes.
I'm also focused on macro, recognizing that the conditions that have catalyzed this bull market for 24 months are still intact and are likely to remain intact. I've highlighted those catalysts in real-time and mentioned them over and over again, so I won't do that here.
Additionally, we have new catalysts that could help to elongate a risk-on bull market.
The crazy thing is, I haven't been a proponent of the "exponential rally".
I still don't even think (or care) that it's coming.
On the contrary, my opinion has been that this rally could last for much longer than people think, but feel much more boring during the uptrend.
I think that's the market environment that we've been in for quite some time... just a healthy uptrend with the production of higher highs and higher lows.
Meanwhile, many are calling for a blow-off top and mistakenly believing that's the phase we're in right now.
Many (if not most) of these people are also calling for a deflationary debt crisis and depression-style economic calamity.
This is charlatanism at its finest, as I've addressed before.
I don't believe in a blow-off top.
I don't believe a crisis/recession is coming.
I think this market has legs.
I think it's proven to us that it has legs and that we're in a young bull market (for stocks) from a statistical & historical perspective.
Bitcoin has matured tremendously over the past 5 years.
In 2018/19, we saw Bitcoin (and crypto) diverge vs. stocks, struggling to participate in the upside while stocks did well in 2019 or selling off significantly more than equities in early & late '18.
I don't think we're going to have that divergence take place now.
So, if equities are likely to experience tailwinds to keep rising and BTC has matured to be viewed as a correlated, high-beta, risk-on asset, then BTC is also likely to experience tailwinds to keep rising.
It's not rocket science.
We must continue to validate that the proper catalysts are in place and that macro conditions are sufficient to support an ongoing uptrend in asset prices.
However...
I see no reason to doubt those catalysts/conditions now.
Optimists have been winning for 2 years.
What if they keep winning?
What if this bull market keeps climbing a wall of worry?
What if...?
Are you prepared or are you under-allocated?
Personally, I'd rather be fully allocated and then manage risk instead of being under-allocated and watching this market grind higher week after week, month after month.
I came out this week and called this a "lockout rally".
The bears who've doubted this bull market are too scared to admit they were wrong and think that the market is too stretched to buy here.
The bulls who've been steadily allocating into this bull market and averaging higher are questioning if they should keep adding extra risk here.
It almost feels like both sides are stuck, held captive by analysis paralysis.
I think the victors of this market will be those who take action, rather than the thinkers.
Bull markets have pullbacks/consolidations.
They will feel scary in the moment, but they look like glaring opportunities with the benefit of hindsight.
So put yourself 6-12 months in the future and reverse engineer the hindsight bias so that you can benefit from it in the present, while others are scared.
As a reminder, I reiterate my cycle price target of at least $175k, based on the 161.8% fibonacci target in logarithmic scale. Quite simply, each bull market ever has reached its 161.8% target from the prior bull market highs to the most recent bear market lows. In some cases, price is able to gain 4x more than the 161.8% target (like in 2017). In some cases, price perfectly tests the 161.8% target and tops out (like in 2021).
This is why I say that my target is AT LEAST $175k.
I'm willing to entertain higher targets, but not with enough confidence to stake my reputation on that number.
It's also my CYCLE target... not my 2024 target or even my 2025 target.
When I first shared this target in mid-2023 at $30k per BTC, many people asked if this was my 2024 target, to which I said no.
Today, many people are asking if this is my 2025 target, to which I say no.
Like I said, I think this bull market has legs.
So why would I put a cap on when the bull market can end if I recognize that conditions are likely to remain intact to support a broad-based uptrend in risk assets?
I wouldn't.
So maybe it happens in 2025. Great.
Or maybe it happens in 2026. Great.
I don't know, nor does anyone else, and I don't care.
I'm allocated enough and will get richer either way.
What's the rush?
Enjoy the ride.
