In any case, we firmly believe that Bitcoin will reach more than $100,000 sooner or later in the future.
With Trump winning the US election the day before yesterday, today (November 8), the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% (the second consecutive rate cut this year, in line with market expectations). Market sentiment also continued to be high, and Bitcoin broke through its historical highs to reach US$76,990.
Although the results of the US election will have a long-term impact on the crypto market, we should not ignore the short-term volatility risk. In the volatile and rising market of Bitcoin this week, the total amount of liquidation in the crypto market exceeded US$348 million in the past 24 hours alone, and more than 96,000 people were liquidated. At the same time, the amount of open interest of Bitcoin on exchanges has reached a record high of US$46.6 billion, which usually indicates that there may be greater fluctuations in the future or that the high point has been reached in the short term. Please don't be FOMO and try to stay away from leverage.
In our last article (November 5), we mentioned that the crypto market has never lacked hot topics. Almost every once in a while, new important events will become the focus of everyone's attention and discussion. Now, with the US election in November and the expected second rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is estimated that people will soon start looking for or paying attention to the next new event.
From a short-term perspective: The reason why the current price of Bitcoin has broken through the historical high is mainly due to the emotional impact of Trump's victory in the US election, which we have already explained in previous articles of Hualihuawai. At this stage, the leverage ratio of the crypto market has increased significantly, so we cannot rule out the possibility of a short-term adjustment.
From a medium- to long-term perspective: As we have predicted in previous articles, with the breakthrough of Bitcoin, a new round of bull market has arrived. Although there may be some adjustments in the short term, this is normal because the market cannot rise in a straight line and there will always be some adjustments during the period. However, if you are still waiting and waiting until Bitcoin is below $40,000 to buy the bottom, then you will probably miss this bull market.
So, what is the highest price of Bitcoin in this bull market?
In fact, we have had some thoughts and guesses on this issue intermittently in the articles starting from 2022. Although from my personal psychological point of view, I am reluctant to talk too much about any market forecasts or price forecasts, but after all, I am a blogger, and I also know that many people (especially newcomers) like to read this kind of content, so I will occasionally do some market analysis or price forecasts (guesses).
As for the price of Bitcoin, for example, in the article on February 14, 2024, we briefly thought about the market trend from four different dimensions. At that time, we further made a subjective prediction of the price of BTC and expected the price in the bull market to be in the range of 100,000-120,000 USD, and this range will also be the range where I will start to consider selling in batches. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, we still say the same old saying, the market is unpredictable, and all so-called predictions are just guesses based on historical experience, data, etc. The logical point here should not be to see what others say, because everyone's risk preferences, positions, personal experiences, etc. are different, you should make reasonable plans and strategies based on your own situation.
At present, our personal expectation (guess) for Bitcoin to reach $100,000-120,000 in this cycle remains unchanged, but with Trump's victory causing Bitcoin prices to quickly break through historical highs, coupled with some new positive measures that Trump may take for the crypto market (for example, making BTC a US strategic reserve asset) (in addition, more than 270 pro-cryptocurrency candidates won seats in Congress this week) and the Federal Reserve's continued expectation of interest rate cuts, we even believe that Bitcoin may reach a maximum of $150,000 next year (2025).
So, what is the highest price of Ethereum in this bull market?
As mentioned above, if Bitcoin can really rise to more than $150,000 next year, then optimistically, ETH has a great chance of reaching $12,000, SOL also has a chance of exceeding $450, and some altcoins will theoretically have 5-10 times the space. If we speculate based on our previous Bitcoin range of $100,000-120,000, then the possible price of ETH is $8,000-1,0000, and the possible price of SOL is $300-400. Of course, this is only a personal speculation based on Bitcoin, and it is not an investment advice.
At the same time, we can also see some positive factors in other aspects, such as:
- Coinbase stock rises
With Trump's victory, the suppressed demand seems to have been more clearly reflected. Although traditional funds in the over-the-counter market may not consider directly participating in the crypto market for some reasons, the rise of Coinbase's stock in recent days can also explain some problems. As shown in the figure below.
In addition to the performance of Coinbase stock, one point we need to think about further is that because Coinbase (including the Base chain) and its derivatives (such as staking, DeFi) are fundamentally closely linked to Ethereum, from the perspective of price expectations, although the price of ETH now lags behind the performance of Coinbase, it is possible that this gap will be slowly eliminated in the near future.
Also, don’t forget that ETH is still the only tool other than BTC that has an ETF product. At this stage, Bitcoin is continuing to create new historical highs, and Solana has also broken through the historical high of MC today (November 8). ETH is also worth our continued expectations.
- CEX is experiencing a large influx of stablecoins
The day after the US election, the inflow of stablecoins on exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase totaled $9.3 billion, which was the second largest influx of ERC-20 stablecoins since their inception. Generally speaking, this is a very positive sign, as a large part of the funds may be used to buy BTC or altcoins. As shown in the figure below
And historically, the massive inflows and subsequent uptrend between September 2020 and February 2021 have coincided with bullish rallies. If history repeats itself, the current influx could similarly trigger a similar uptrend, and the crypto market could experience another bullish rally.
In addition, we have to mention the issue of MemeCoin again. We have already mentioned it in the previous article of Hualihuawai. It seems that the current trend of MemeCoin is at its peak. Perhaps in the near future we will see the possibility of a rapid rotation of some copycat narratives again.
As Bitcoin continues to break new all-time highs this week, I found that some projects under the DeFi category have rebounded very well, such as UNI, AAVE, etc. As shown in the figure below.
Previously, due to some regulatory pressure from the SEC, it seemed that many altcoins other than BTC were considered securities, which also made it impossible for many altcoins to be used for normal speculation in the US market. But with Trump taking office, perhaps these issues may have some new changes.
We expect that before the first or second quarter of 2025, some altcoins may be refocused and hyped by funds, and then some liquidity in MemeCoin may flow back into the altcoin narrative. However, in this process, due to the particularity of the MemeCoin narrative in this cycle, we may continue to see the emergence of a few Memes getting rich stories (that is, a few MemeCoins will continue to rise), but the probability of a large-scale MemeCoin cycle surge will be greatly reduced.
In short, in the medium and long term, we will continue to be optimistic about the overall development of the market. In any case, we firmly believe that Bitcoin will reach more than $100,000 sooner or later. But you should also pay attention to short-term fluctuations. This week or in the next few weeks, with the election and the expected rate cuts, the market may go sideways or fall for a short time.
In a bull market, it seems that everyone can make money, but many people often lose money in the middle and late stages of the bull market. You must make good plans and position management. If it is a short-term operation, pay attention to stop-profit and stop-loss. If you are still waiting and watching with empty positions, and you still want to seize the last opportunity of this bull market, then you must seriously think about and adjust your strategy now, because the bull market will not last forever.
