ChainCatcher message, CICC research report points out that by mid-2025, U.S. inflation and economic data may gradually improve, and the pace of interest rate cuts may gradually stop. With Trump's election, the risk of interest rate increases is greater than the risk of decreases, and a 100bps rate cut may be an appropriate extent.

The market's expectations for future interest rate cut paths are experiencing a process of swinging from one extreme to another, especially influenced by recent economic data and the expectations following the election. In terms of pace, inflation and economic data may gradually rebound by mid-2025, leading to a gradual halt in interest rate cuts.

CICC estimates that inflation will have a year-on-year tail effect in the fourth quarter of this year due to base issues, but driven by the decline in rents, both inflation and core inflation are unlikely to face significant pressure to drop by the first quarter of 2025. In terms of extent, cutting rates to around 3.5% is a reasonable level.