Original Title: The Bitcoin Report: Key Trends, Insights, and Bullish Price Forecasts
Original source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro
Original translation by: Felix, PANews
Bitcoin Magazine Pro published a review of October Bitcoin developments and discussed several key topics, including the decline in Bitcoin exchange balances, ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion, and optimistic forecasts that could redefine Bitcoin's value in the coming quarter. Here are the details of the report.
Key Highlights:
· Bitcoin On-chain Analysis: Bitcoin exchange balances are at a historical low, indicating increased confidence among holders, with more choosing self-custody.
· Bitcoin ETF surge: ETF inflows exceeded $5.4 billion in October, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the market. This reflects the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets.
· Mining Dynamics: Russia and China are expanding their mining influence, while the U.S. still maintains the largest share of hashing power.
· Bullish price forecast: Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays predicts a potential price range of $102,000 to $140,000 by mid-2025, supported by strong technical indicators.
Bitcoin On-chain
Highlights
· BTC exchange balances hit a new low, indicating a rising preference for self-custody.
· The number of addresses holding over 100 coins has reached an all-time high, reflecting the expansion of adoption.
· Strong on-chain fundamentals indicate that price momentum will continue through 2025.
Forecast
The decrease in exchange balances of Bitcoin and the continuous growth in wallet adoption suggest potential for price increases. Investors should pay attention to inflows into exchanges and the growth of high-balance wallets as indicators of demand and potential price strength for Q4 and beyond.
Insights
In October, the total balance of Bitcoin on exchanges significantly decreased, currently slightly below 3 million, as shown in Figure 1. This decline indicates that investors are increasingly choosing self-custody rather than leaving funds on exchanges, a trend typically associated with long-term holding strategies. When exchange balances decrease while prices rise, it indicates confidence in Bitcoin's medium- to long-term trajectory. This shift toward self-custody could become a supply-side constraint, potentially putting upward pressure on prices if demand remains strong.
Mining
Highlights
· Russia and China currently contribute significantly to global Bitcoin hashing power.
· The U.S. still leads in hashing power, but Russia ranks second, while China, despite the mining ban, has seen activities quietly increase.
· Emerging markets like Ethiopia and Argentina are also seeing growth, which may affect hashing power distribution.
Forecast
If the hashing power of China and Russia continues to grow, U.S. miners may face new global competition next year.
Insights
Recently, Russia and China are becoming key players in the global Bitcoin mining space. Russia is now the second-largest contributor to global hashing power. Its utilization of abundant natural resources allows miners to access cost-effective energy. This expansion is driven by the region's support for mining as a profitable strategic economic activity. Meanwhile, despite China's official ban, underground mining continues, with increasing activities in recent years. This dual development hints at a shift in mining power, which could affect market dynamics, especially as global hashing power distribution is no longer dominated by the U.S.
Although the U.S. still leads in Bitcoin hashing power, the rapid rise of Russia and the resilience of China pose challenges for U.S. miners. Emerging markets like Ethiopia and Argentina are also ramping up mining activities, creating a more decentralized global mining network. This diversification could enhance the security and operational stability of the Bitcoin network, making it less susceptible to regional disruptions. As these trends continue, U.S. Bitcoin miners may face stiffer competition, both in securing energy resources and maintaining profitability under volatile market conditions.
ETFs
Highlights
· BlackRock's BTC ETF (IBIT) had a maximum single-day inflow of $872 million, with a monthly net trading volume of $4.6 billion.
· Fidelity's maximum single-day inflow was $239 million, but its net trading volume was only $496.8 million, which pales in comparison to IBIT.
· Bitwise (BITB) had a maximum single-day inflow of $100.2 million, with a net trading volume of $137.3 million for the month.
Forecast
Short-term fluctuations in BTC ETF are expected. While IBIT remains the leader in trading volume and liquidity, it may not provide the best trading volatility. The relative scales of FBTC and ARKB show significant fluctuations, providing the best opportunities for trading.
Insights
In October, net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs reached a record of approximately $5.415 billion (Figure 1). The popularity and demand for these products prompted the U.S. SEC to further approve options trading on many BTC ETF products. Increases in speculation, leverage, margin calls, market maker delta hedging, and sentiment effects may influence BTC ETFs, which will have ongoing effects on the direct Bitcoin spot market itself.
BlackRock's IBIT is far ahead, with a monthly trading volume of $4.6 billion and the most active trading. This also means that for traders looking to act on market dynamics, there will always be someone willing to take over every trade if it is IBIT. Other ETF options, such as Fidelity's FBTC, Ark 21Shares' ARKB, and Bitwise's BITB, can provide better entry opportunities as the trading volumes for each option have decreased (Figure 2). While ETFs strive to perfectly track BTC market prices, lower liquidity and trading volumes can create opportunities to enter favorable positions during these imbalances.
Stocks
Highlights
· MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced a three-year $42 billion Bitcoin investment plan aimed at putting more BTC on its balance sheet.
· Although Bitcoin has increased 63.9% year-to-date, six of the top ten Bitcoin-related stocks have underperformed (negative returns).
· Metaplanet INC (TYO: 3350) has increased 838.82% year-to-date, primarily due to its announcement of adopting a Bitcoin balance sheet strategy.
Forecast
Driven by positive sentiment around Bitcoin in early Q4, Bitcoin-related stocks may rise in the coming months. Stocks like Semler Scientific (SMLR) may present opportunities, as they are quietly incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, providing positive upward momentum for the stock's value.
Insights
While intuitively Bitcoin-related stocks should follow the bullish trend of BTC, most have not benefitted from Bitcoin's 63.9% year-to-date increase (Figure 1). Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and CleanSpark (CLSK) have decreased by -31.42%, -38.98%, and -6.39% year-to-date, respectively, indicating operational difficulties or sensitivity to crypto mining costs. Tesla (TSLA) has only risen by 0.2% since early 2024, while Block Inc. (SO) has dropped by 6.72%. Although Coinbase (COIN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY or BRPHE) have performed well, their performance has not outpaced the spot Bitcoin price movement.
In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) surged 263.68%, reflecting the impact of its leveraged Bitcoin holdings and investor confidence in its Bitcoin-focused strategy. MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced a three-year $42 billion Bitcoin investment plan, continuing the company's buy-and-hold strategy (Figure 2). In Japan, Metaplanet Inc. (TYO: 3350) has grown 838.82% year-to-date since announcing its Bitcoin reserve strategy earlier this year. As Bitcoin enters the next bull market, companies should consider adopting Bitcoin holding strategies.
Derivatives
Highlights
· Bitcoin recently broke $70,000, with short positions liquidated exceeding $100 million.
· Funding rates remain relatively neutral, likely due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections.
· At this stage of the market cycle, funding rates are very low.
· This is bullish as it will allow BTC prices to rise further without excessive leverage building up in the derivatives market.
Forecast
Once the uncertainty of the U.S. elections and the subsequent market volatility pass, Bitcoin is expected to rise before the end of the year.
Insights
BTC has shown an upward trend over the past month. Although there have been downward corrections along the way, most liquidations were against traders attempting to short BTC.
The U.S. elections have introduced short-term uncertainty into the Bitcoin derivatives market. Significant volatility is expected in the coming weeks.
However, once any directional impulse fades, the derivatives market is expected to stabilize again. Currently, at this stage of the Bitcoin market cycle, the funding rates remain very low. This is bullish and should allow Bitcoin prices to rise significantly in the coming months until we see funding rates +0.06. By then, caution may be necessary, but we are far from those levels currently.
Adoption
Highlights
· MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced a $42 billion capital plan, which includes a $21 billion ATM stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin.
· Metaplanet (3350.T) holds over 1,000 BTC, making it the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder in Asia.
· Microsoft (MSFT) will hold a shareholder meeting in December to vote on potential Bitcoin financial strategies.
Forecast
MicroStrategy (MSTR) has decided to use Bitcoin as a financial reserve, which benefits shareholders and promotes the adoption of Bitcoin in publicly traded institutions. Since January, companies like Metaplanet (the largest public Bitcoin holder in Asia, holding over 1,000 BTC), Semler Scientific, and Samara Asset Group have followed suit. This trend may influence Microsoft (MSFT) shareholders to vote on a similar strategy in December.
Insights
MicroStrategy plans to issue $21 billion in Class A common stock over the next three years to purchase Bitcoin. Michael Saylor's $42 billion capital plan includes a $21 billion stock issuance and aims to raise $21 billion in fixed-income securities to finance Bitcoin purchases.
Inspired by MicroStrategy's success, Japan's Metaplanet adopted a Bitcoin reserve strategy this spring and now holds over 1,000 BTC, becoming the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder in Asia. Due to Bitcoin's deflationary nature and its average annual return of 40%, it has become the preferred reserve asset for hedging excess cash. Even large tech companies are starting to follow suit: Microsoft shareholders will vote in December on whether to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Although management has stated 'no', strong shareholder interest may change the decision, potentially triggering wider adoption of Bitcoin among publicly traded companies.
Regulation
Focus
· SEC approves Bitcoin ETF options: An important step toward mainstream financial product integration.
· Pennsylvania's Bitcoin Rights Bill: A milestone in protecting Bitcoin self-custody and payment rights.
· Thailand proposes crypto fund access: Asian crypto adoption rates may rise.
Forecast
Recent regulatory developments, particularly the approval of Bitcoin ETF options and the active legislative movement in the U.S., could significantly enhance investor confidence. This could lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices, especially if these initiatives are seen as paving the way for more mainstream financial integration. Additionally, it is crucial to monitor regulatory dynamics from key markets like the U.S., as political changes may affect regulatory approaches, while countries like those in Asia are opening up to crypto funds, potentially impacting regional and global market sentiment.
Insights
October is a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's regulatory landscape, as the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETF options trading demonstrates an increasing acceptance of cryptocurrencies in traditional finance. This development not only provides investors with additional hedging and speculative tools but could also enhance Bitcoin's liquidity and price stability in the long run.
Pennsylvania recently passed legislation recognizing the right to self-custody and payment in Bitcoin, which could influence other states in the U.S. This could create a more Bitcoin-friendly environment, reducing concerns about strict regulations and fostering an investment-friendly atmosphere. The Asian market, especially Thailand's allowance for private funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, suggests widespread acceptance of cryptocurrencies in one of the world's largest economic zones, potentially driving trends in neighboring countries.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Highlights
The continuous rise in U.S. federal debt highlights the limitations of fiat currency and drives interest in Bitcoin. Ongoing inflation shown by the CPI enhances Bitcoin's appeal as a hedging tool. Amid concerns over the long-term stability of the dollar, institutional investors are increasingly considering Bitcoin.
Forecast
Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by growing concerns over federal debt and inflation. Monitoring the CPI and federal debt levels can provide early indicators of Bitcoin's potential appreciation in the coming months.
Insights
In a market environment characterized by high debt and inflationary tendencies, Bitcoin's value proposition is clearer than ever. The first chart below shows the relationship between federal debt and Bitcoin prices. As federal debt rises to unprecedented levels, the sustainability of the dollar as a store of value is increasingly questioned. Investors, especially institutional ones, are seeking alternatives that are not affected by currency depreciation. Bitcoin's limited supply can effectively hedge against the risks posed by excessive debt accumulation and currency devaluation.
The second chart below shows the continued rise in the consumer price index (CPI) relative to Bitcoin, even excluding volatile categories like food and energy, indicating very high inflation. This reinforces Bitcoin's status as a long-term store of value, capable of maintaining purchasing power during economic uncertainty. With no signs of inflation waning and federal debt continuing to balloon, Bitcoin holds a unique position as a strategic asset for value preservation and hedging against economic instability.
Price Forecast
Focus
· Price trends are about to close at historical highs on daily, weekly, and monthly charts, which is very bullish across all these time frames.
· In Bitcoin's history, MRL has only closed with a green star on the 2-month histogram for the 7th time. All previous six instances have led to increases of over 100% in the following year.
· Cup and handle patterns and Fibonacci extensions provide additional bullish price targets in the range of $100,000 to $105,000.
Forecast
Currently, the biggest concern is 'herd mentality', with everyone expecting prices to exceed $100,000. Personally, I haven't seen anything worrying in TA charts, on-chain analysis, four-year halving cycle analysis, mining industry, or any regulatory setbacks. Many are buying Bitcoin in anticipation of greater regulatory recognition under the Trump administration.
Insights
Bitcoin is poised for a potential bull market, with technical indicators pointing to three price targets. The Tone Vays MRL indicator on the 2-month chart shows an increase of at least 100% over the past 6 months, suggesting a peak of around $140,000 or higher by Q2 2025. This pattern is consistent with the significant rebounds seen in 2017 and 2021.
Additionally, the cup and handle patterns on the weekly and monthly charts point to a target of $105,000, typically achieved within 4-6 months based on historical trends. Finally, Fibonacci extensions indicate an initial target of $102,000, with potential to reach higher levels of $155,000 and $210,000 if prior cycles repeat.
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