1. Current Price & Fluctuation
• BTC price is currently $75,876, still "flickering" near its previous ATH (all-time high). In the past 24 hours, BTC has inched up 0.23%, showing that it is still "chilling" and stable in the short term.
• If the price breaks $76,873 with strong buying volume, we will likely see BTC "break the peak"!
2. Volume - Trading Volume
• 24h volume is $69.8 billion - "crazy" high. This shows that the community is still "pushing the wave" strongly, but be wary if the volume drops suddenly, BTC may correct.
• VSA: Volume Spread Analysis warns that if the price increases while volume decreases, it is possible that the "big hands" are quietly exiting. To avoid being the "last one holding the lamp", you need to watch the volume.
3. Technical Indicators
• Moving Averages (MA): Use MA 50 and MA 200 to "check trend". If MA 50 crosses above MA 200, we have a "Golden Cross" - a strong signal for an uptrend. Conversely, a "Death Cross" is a time to be cautious.
• RSI: RSI above 70 means BTC is "overbought" - be cautious as BTC may have to take a breather after the sprint. RSI below 30 means BTC is being sold off - this is a great opportunity to buy the bottom.
• MACD: If the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is bullish (uptrend), otherwise it is bearish (downtrend).
4. Market Psychology - Sentiment
• FOMO is present when BTC is near ATH, many investors fear missing out on the opportunity and "jump in" strongly. But be careful! When the price peaks, FOMO will cool down if there is no supporting news or new trend.
• Fear & Greed Index: If this index is high, there is a possibility that the market is "too greedy", and is prone to a strong correction. Conversely, when the index is low, it is an opportunity to accumulate.
5. Price Model and Support/Resistance Zones
• Strong support: $70,000 - This level is quite strong, if the price falls below this, BTC will likely correct further.
• Peak resistance: $80,000 - If BTC breaks this level with high volume, it is likely to "accelerate" further.
• Candlestick: Watch for Japanese candlestick patterns such as Doji, Hammer, or Engulfing around support/resistance areas to confirm buy/sell points.
6. Trading Strategy - Risk Management
• Risk/Reward: Before placing an order, always assess the risk/reward ratio. If this ratio is not good (below 1:1), then don't enter. A ratio of 1:2 or higher is good.
• Stop-Loss: Set stop loss below $70,000 if the price drops to avoid losing your entire account.
• Take Profit: Take profit near $80,000 if BTC reaches it, to protect your profits.
7. Conclusion and Strategy
• The current trend is still bullish, but since BTC is near its previous high, stronger technical signals need to be confirmed.
• Entry (Entry Point): If BTC breaks $76,873 with high volume, you can buy. If not, wait for a correction to $70,000 to enter at a lower price.
• Exit (Exit Point): Stop-loss if BTC falls below $70,000. Take profit around $80,000 to secure profits in case of a reversal.
Conclusion:
This analysis helps you catch the BTC wave in the current context. It is important to stick to risk management and avoid FOMO to avoid becoming a "rookie".
