1) Net inflows into crypto are growing, and since mid-September this growth has accelerated quite noticeably. Over the past 50 days, almost $26 billion of fresh money has come into crypto. However, of these inflows, only $4 billion went to the printing press of stablecoins (which also bought a lot of BTC, only inside crypto exchanges) and the purchase of ETH. More than 85% of the money was invested exclusively in BTC. In the same December - early January 2024, this figure for BTC was slightly more than 60%.

2) Since the same mid-September, the annual yield of funding has grown more than 1.5 times, and currently amounts to 10%, which is twice the yield on short-term US Treasury bonds. That is, we take a long through a spot BTC-ETF, and short the same volume on the exchange. The exchange pays us funding (since it is positive), while we are protected from any movement of BTC (i.e. we receive income only from funding, which now amounts to 10% on an annual basis, on average across all exchanges)

3) Let's see what's happening with the volume of futures trading on all exchanges. Indeed, the current values ​​are only slightly higher than the sideways trend of the last two months, i.e. only BTC and a few liquid memes are being driven on futures (98% of alts are just sluggishly hanging out in a narrow corridor), which does not correspond to the percentage growth in volumes in the same December 2023

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🟠 Conclusion. All inflows into crypto over the past two months are more than 80% related to BTC, and for the most part this is even related to the growth of attractiveness within the "risk-free" annual return for large capital, which is now ~10%. Spot inflows through BTC-ETFs are shorted by the same volume on exchanges (for large money, this is CME), which is why open interest, which is now scaring many people, is growing so rapidly. But for the most part, this OI is "risk-free", which is covered by the same volume of spot positions. For the same reason, the current dominance of BTC is > 60%. The growth of alta will begin in the case when inflows into the spot ETF will greatly overlap the growth of open interest (CME - as a marker), i.e. money through bitcoin will more often go to alta, and not "put in the bank" by 100%, and in this regard, there are already positive shifts (I will show in the next post)

#onchain