The dust of the election has settled, and market volatility has significantly decreased, revealing historical patterns once again. As previously mentioned by Bing Tang, as the election approaches, the market experiences heightened volatility due to changing expectations, with investors seeking safe havens. Once the results are announced, uncertainty turns into certainty, and volatility subsequently declines.
After Trump's victory, the market may experience a phenomenon of 'good news priced in.' If policy implementations do not meet expectations, it may trigger reverse trading. During a discussion with fan friends over the phone, Bing Tang believed that the market might first surge and then retreat, but the extent of the retreat would be limited, and after adjustment, there would still be room for upward movement.
After all, Trump will not officially hand over power until January next year, and truly pushing for policy implementation will require one to two months after taking office. During this period, the market is filled with optimistic expectations about Trump's future governance.
I remember in October, the market driven by the expectations of Trump’s victory was like a passionate romance, with retail investors hinting to themselves: 'This is the man!' The election victory felt like entering a honeymoon phase, and the market was sweet. However, as time passes, if it is found that Trump talks a lot but does little, disappointment may arise, and market enthusiasm could gradually fade.
As someone jokingly remarked: 'Trump's policies are like his new hairstyle, they look stylish, but it’s uncertain how long they will last.'
Regarding Bitcoin and Ethereum, Bing Tang mentioned in an article on October 30 that if Ethereum does not rise above 2820, then this wave of Bitcoin bulls will be the last celebration.
In Bing Tang's view, when Bitcoin previously broke new highs, Ethereum did not break the 2820 resistance level in sync as it did when Bitcoin reached new highs last year, which led Bing Tang to question whether Bitcoin was a false breakout and whether there would be a weekly top divergence, perhaps we will see the outcome this month.
So when it comes to Ethereum, Bing Tang also believes many friends want to continue asking, will the altcoin season arrive? However, this morning Ethereum has successfully broken through the 2820 resistance level, and DEFI (Decentralized Finance) has surged across the board, seemingly indicating that market funds are flowing from Bitcoin to the Ethereum series, with BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) also plummeting.
Since Ethereum has broken through 2820, Bing Tang will no longer be bearish on the market. Of course, it is clear that there is still a possibility of a false breakout, but if this week’s weekly K closes with an entity still breaking through the 2820 level, then the follow-up rise of Ethereum and altcoins will continue.