Trump has returned to the White House, and European leaders are not rejoicing. He has defeated Kamala Harris, leaving EU officials still fearful.

After witnessing him break international relations and impose tariffs on European goods during his first term, they know what to expect: more economic warfare. They have planned for this for over a year, but now that it has become a reality, they are struggling.

EU leaders are rushing to protect Europe from tariffs

A day after the election results, European diplomats and leaders wake up with a shared anxiety. 'I see it, [and] I don’t want to believe it,' one unnamed EU official said. Another diplomat added, 'It’s not great again.' But this time there was no shock, just a reluctant acceptance.

They have seen Trump's tactics before, and they know it will not be kind to Europe. The U.S. and EU share the largest bilateral trade relationship in the world. In 2021, their trade and investment exchange peaked at 1.2 trillion euros ($1.29 trillion), a crucial economic connection for Europe.

But Trump's 'America First' stance has always pushed for more American goods in the European market, and he is willing to make the EU 'pay a heavy price' for inaction. He proposed a new 10% tariff on imports from Europe, which would harm industries across the continent.

For Germany, this is a serious threat. German car manufacturers are heavily reliant on exports to the United States, and Trump's tariffs could devastate an already fragile industry. In a recent report, ING analysts called Trump's victory 'Europe's worst economic nightmare.'

"A new trade war is emerging that could push the eurozone economy from sluggish growth to full-blown recession," they said. Economic growth across the EU has been slow, and adding new trade barriers would be disastrous.

European leaders are not waiting for things to play out. They will meet on Thursday and Friday in Budapest to formulate their response. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni are all expected to attend.

For most people, this is not a celebration but an emergency planning session. The mood in Brussels is tense, as leaders focus on maintaining the stability of the EU economy. However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is the exception. A longtime Trump fan, Orban hinted that he would pop champagne to celebrate. But for the rest of Europe, this is a moment to manage the damage.

"There will be the first discussion [about the U.S. election results] in Budapest," a third EU source confirmed. They will talk about trade, but Trump's return raises another big issue for Europe: security.

Ukraine in a precarious situation, NATO's future in doubt

One of Trump's biggest promises in the election was to cut U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and this has made European capitals anxious. Without U.S. support, Ukraine's position against Russia's invasion would be significantly weakened.

European officials know they do not have enough resources to replace the billions of dollars in military aid that Ukraine currently receives from the United States. Losing that support could push Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace deal with Russia - a victory for Putin and a nightmare for Europe.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are preparing to take a stand, calling for 'a more united, stronger, and more sovereign Europe.' They are strengthening the common defense strategy and pushing NATO to bolster European security.

The risks are very high, and NATO leaders know it. The alliance, long a vital part of Europe's defense system, relies heavily on U.S. involvement, and Trump's return has raised concerns about a divided NATO.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who was previously Prime Minister of the Netherlands, said he is willing to work with Trump, but he did not hide the alliance's concerns. 'NATO helps promote U.S. interests, amplifies U.S. power, and keeps Americans safe,' he reminded Trump, subtly implying that NATO is not just Europe's security blanket.

Germany's Transatlantic Coordinator, Michael Link, shares these concerns, warning that Europe cannot sit back and wait for Trump's next move. 'We must clarify what we expect from the United States, that they must fulfill their NATO obligations,' Link said on German radio. The great fear here is an unengaged America, with a more aggressive Russia and a bolder China.

The EU faces difficult choices

"Our biggest goal is to maintain European unity," a third diplomat said about the upcoming EU discussions. ING analysts bluntly stated that the combination of tariffs and the reduction of U.S. military support for Ukraine is Europe's worst-case scenario.

German Finance Minister Christian Lindner stated last month that if the U.S. goes down this path, Europe will have to 'consider retaliating.'

Trump's proposed comprehensive tariffs could hit German automakers like Volkswagen and BMW hard, delivering a severe blow to an industry that is already struggling.

Lindner emphasized the need for diplomacy, urging EU leaders to cooperate to prevent U.S.-EU trade conflict. He argued that 'the U.S. does not have its best interests at heart when there is a trade conflict with [the European] Union.'

And then there is the technology issue. Europe has begun to enact new regulations targeting America's tech giants, which will likely anger the Trump administration. European leaders know they need to tread carefully here; adding fuel to the fire of an already tense trade environment could tip the scales toward a real trade war.

Diplomatic balancing act: Walking a tightrope

While some leaders, like Macron, are trying to maintain the diplomatic front, the atmosphere among European officials is quite bleak.

Macron has signaled that he is willing to cooperate with Trump by saying, 'Ready to cooperate as we did for the past four years.'

But he and Scholz also know that Europe needs to be stronger than ever if it wants to keep up with the United States under Trump.

The EU is striving to have its voice heard, but ultimately, Europe is heading toward a new economic reality marked by tension, instability, and a great deal of uncertainty.

The unity, economy, and sovereignty of the EU are under threat. Trump is back, and this time, Europe is feeling the pressure more than ever.

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