$BTC Today's Analysis:
Today is Thursday, and the situation presented here is still in a daily bullish trend convergence phase. Simply put, the bullish market is still continuing, but it is already in the final stage of the trend. From the price changes, we can see that there are large-scale and small-scale top divergence phenomena emerging. From what I have observed, daily, weekly, and monthly charts are all showing top divergence.
At this moment, the interest rate cut has just begun to activate at the weekly level, and the price level of 75000, which was previously indicated by the matrix, has already appeared. Furthermore, there is an absolute top and a secondary top relationship between 78000 and 73700. Therefore, even though the current price has reached a new high, my feeling remains that it is too high and precarious. I hold a bearish view, but I am not overly engaging in short selling operations.
Additionally, today, the beneficial news related to Trump has already been fulfilled, so we need to assess whether a pullback similar to 'drawing doors' will occur. From a timing perspective, it was originally expected that there would be a rising trend around the 6th to 7th, but I did not anticipate that there would be an explosive surge directly. Going forward, we should pay attention to potential trend reversals between the 7th and 8th, and most likely, a reversal will be encountered by the 10th. As for the rising price, the highest level to watch is 78000, while we also need to monitor whether the weekly chart will drop below 73777.
The rising trend from 66800 to 76400 is likely to pull back to 72000. We should pay attention to the high and low points on the 8th.
Personal Situation:
I continue to hold my short position at 75900. My large volume allows me to withstand fluctuations up to 80000. If it does not drop below 73500 during the day, then there is still a high probability of a surge at night, as many external funds are intervening and the interest rate cut data is about to be released, so reaching the edge of 80000 is possible (probability).
Recommendation:
Small investors seeking profits and those who have just broken even may not follow my example. They can take profit or close half if it does not drop below 73500 during the day. Large investors can follow my approach, using 1400 points as a basic strategy, increasing their position by 1400 points or 2000 points until they reach the highest point.
I expect the probability to be 78000, and fans who have not joined the short-selling team can place high-price orders to short at 76 and 78. If they do not get filled, there is no loss, focusing on being steady.
