Good morning everyone, I am Chicken Father. It’s late at night, and I want to share a few heartfelt words with you all.
1. Although my recent performance has not been great, it is absolutely not as outrageous as some comments suggest. In the past week/month, while my overall account profit is not high, I admit I am still earning, just not much. My personal account has a 22% profit rate over the past 30 days, and a 2% profit rate over the past 7 days, with 2 days profit and 2 days loss.
All my copy trading accounts are real. If it were really as some comments say, that I am 'always against the trend,' 'never right,' or 'blow up once followed,' then even if my account is not liquidated, it should at least have been halved, right? But in reality, since I started leading trades, my overall profit rate is still positive. Even if I made a mistake on this round's 4-hour level drop, the profit rate is still positive, at 12%.
To be honest, the market in the past 30 days has not been easy to operate. I have managed to profit from both long and short positions, although it has not been smooth. I admit that.
2. I am actually somewhat frustrated with the current cryptocurrency market. Many people say I am too strict with points, which leads to poor results. It is not that I am strict; it is just that the current environment necessitates such an approach.
I have mentioned many times that I am optimistic about a super bull market at the end of the year, expecting it to reach the 82000-89000 range by late November/December. These are my exact words, right? I have never said that 73800 is the peak for the year; on the contrary, I have repeatedly stated that this ATH will definitely be broken within the year. Those are also my exact words.
But in the current cryptocurrency market, is anyone playing spot? You are all trading contracts. Some people ask, 'Since you are optimistic about a bull market at the end of the year, why are you shorting?' If I keep shouting 'long' and the market corrects for a week last week, wouldn't you either face liquidation or take a big loss? How many people have a long position at 59333? When profits are given back, will you blame me? Don't say you won't; there will definitely be people blaming me, definitely people saying they were liquidated. There are lessons from the past. Some say I see a low of 64500, but in reality, one could have gone long at 68000. That's because from a god's perspective, the lowest was only 66800. If I really let you endure a 3500 point drop, you would still curse me. To put it simply, this is similar to when I said at noon today that I wanted to reduce positions; there was a 1-hour level drop, but instead, it shot up from 71500 to 75500. Some claimed to have held on through a 4000 point move. Is there any difference? And everyone discussing reason, across the internet, who could have seen 75000 points before noon today?
To be honest, the difference between 73600-66800 and 73600-64500 is only 2300 points. In the end, this big correction has indeed occurred, it's just that the pattern points differ from expectations. Moreover, a V-shaped reversal without a second probe is inherently a low-probability event.
On the other hand, spot players do not care about these 2300 points, but for contracts, who can say they do not care about 2300 points? If it really drops 2300 points, they will definitely be anxious and unable to sleep well.
I have a fan who, at the beginning of October, I advised to open a 1% position with 100x leverage on a long contract just above 60000. She still hasn't closed it. At that time, I was also long just above 60000, but after being stopped out, I re-entered at 59333.
During this process, she asked me several times whether she should close her position. I told her the forced liquidation price is 25000, so why panic? Just hold on until the bull market ends, at least close around 79000.
That is a long-term strategy, a spot trading strategy. How many of you can hold such positions? I know some people are thinking, am I the only one who wants to profit from both long and short? Otherwise, if I say it will drop to 64500/66000 and then rebound to 82000, shouldn't those who curse me out of fear of missing out have entered their long positions at 68000? Especially since I have been debating whether the lowest point is 64500 or 66000 these past two days.
3. The reason I say I am somewhat frustrated with the current cryptocurrency market is that everyone is treating this market like a casino, and in fact, it is a casino now. The contract open interest has reached unprecedented peaks since mid-year. A 5% fluctuation in Bitcoin is merely 3000 points. In the past, we wouldn't even blink at a 5% fluctuation; we have experienced Bitcoin halving before. Now, a 3000 point discrepancy could be deadly. If you long a altcoin and it crashes by 10%, you lose your position, and then it doubles in a few days, was your long position correct or wrong?
There is no such thing as value investing anymore; many people's so-called 'crypto dream' turns out to be just two words: 'cold and lifeless.' Is there anyone here who hasn't experienced a fivefold or tenfold liquidation? But how many who traded with all their capital in contracts had a good ending? Surviving is already quite good.
I know many people, after trading contracts, stare at the screen with red eyes every day, unable to sleep well when they incur losses. I also have insomnia issues, but I have long since cured my habit of staring at the screen. Since I moved 80% of my funds to spot trading, I have been enjoying my meals, and when contract trading is not going well, I just read books or play on my phone.
I sell when the spot reaches the target. Some say I will sell in two batches at the end of November/December; what if there is still a bull market in 2025, and I miss out? There is no such thing as missing out in this market; I also missed out on Bitcoin at 10 dollars. You talk about missing out, but what about 100 dollars, 1000 dollars, or the 16000 dollars at the end of 2022... does that count as missing out? There are plenty of opportunities in this market. If I really 'miss out,' I will just wait for the next opportunity. All indicators tell me that there will be an economic crisis next year, so I must sell off my assets this year while the market is at its peak instead of FOMOing all the way up.
4. The only time we truly make money is in a few months. One is when the bear market's low consolidation ends and it breaks above the bull-bear dividing line (daily MA250), continuing to rise. This only lasts a few months.
One is that it drops again below the daily MA250, consolidates, and then rises above the ATH. This also only lasts a few months.
With just these two waves, we have made 90% of our money. Many people are afraid of missing out and not making money; the range of 67000-89000 is not missing out. Both long and short will have opportunities; when the price reaches the target, make an attempt. If the situation isn't right, don’t hold onto losing positions; cut losses and seek the next opportunity. Since March of this year, the major bull trend has actually ended, and the profit effects and opportunities afterward will be significantly less.
Don't always think about getting rich quickly. There are cases of making money in this circle, but steady progress is everyone's ultimate destination.