Will Bitcoin see a sell-off after the new high?
First, let’s start with the market odds analysis that currently dominates Bitcoin price action. For reference: At the time of this post (14: 02 UTC), the odds of Trump winning are 61.7% and the Bitcoin price is $ 70, 047.38.
Who will be the next buyers and why? Who will stand up after Trump wins and say: "Yes, now is a good time to buy a lot of Bitcoin"? Of course there will be people buying, but will these people be able to outpace the investors who have accumulated Bitcoin for more than a month and are ready to take profits once the bet is successful? The answer is no.
After Trump wins, we may see the entire rally pull back. So, what short-term incentives are there for people to buy Bitcoin at this stage? Will Trump announce the establishment of a sovereign Bitcoin fund on the day of his inauguration? No. What other policies need to change? The United States is already moving in a Bitcoin-friendly direction.
How many times did Trump mention Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies during the campaign, especially compared to issues such as immigration? No.
Summary of my Bitcoin price predictions: Trump wins: Initial excitement, may rush to all-time highs, but no support around 70k, then falls back, smart holders will buy Bitcoin with the logic of inflation hedging assets. Harris wins: 1 month of "early bets" on Trump's victory failed, there was a big sell-off, more smart holders will buy supply, and the price slowly rises to all-time highs as an inflation hedging asset.
