Voting has begun in the 2024 US presidential election, with Republican presidential candidate Trump leading Harris 248 votes to 216, needing 22 more votes to secure victory. As Harris's votes rapidly catch up, Bitcoin has stalled after reaching $75,000, despite billionaire Musk's ongoing posts boosting the cryptocurrency bull market. However, Dogecoin's momentum has currently retreated, with a daily increase still exceeding 25%.
US election results update: Trump leads Harris 248 votes to 216 votes
The vote count in the key swing state of Pennsylvania has now surpassed 80%, with Trump receiving 51.3% of the votes and Harris receiving 47.8%.
According to the Associated Press, Trump has won 16 electoral votes from the swing state of North Carolina. North Carolina is the second swing state in this US presidential election in terms of electoral vote count, following Pennsylvania with 19 votes, and tied with Georgia.
Currently, Trump has won the states of Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Wyoming, Louisiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Missouri, Utah, Montana, Kansas, Iowa, Idaho, and North Carolina.
Harris has won Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington D.C., New Jersey, Delaware, Illinois, New York, Colorado, Washington State, and California.
The US presidential election adopts an electoral college system, where electoral votes are distributed among the 50 states based on population. Winning at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes constitutes victory.
The 'Trump Trade' continues: Dogecoin's market value soars as Musk wakes up the Bitcoin bull market
Musk, regarded as the 'father of Dogecoin', continues to post on Twitter, clearly expressing his support for Trump.
As Bitcoin surged to $75,000 due to the 'Trump Trade', Dogecoin also rose in response, surpassing Ripple (XRP) in market value to become the seventh-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.
Eastern European currencies have fallen against the dollar more than most emerging market currencies, indicating that a Trump victory might weaken US support for NATO and Ukraine. Currencies from Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary all fell nearly 2% against the dollar on Wednesday, making them the worst-performing among the 23 emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg, second only to the Mexican peso. The decline in these currencies may partly reflect concerns that Trump's election could lead the US to push for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management, stated earlier this week: 'If Trump is elected, I wouldn't be surprised, as everyone instinctively reacts negatively and then starts to consider whether to take a more pragmatic approach.'
As the market currently predicts Trump will become the next US president, implied volatility in foreign exchange has been declining across most maturities.
Interest rate traders will pay attention to whether a certain party not only wins the presidential election but also gains control of the House and Senate. If this happens, stimulus legislation like tax cuts or increased government spending will become easier, increasing pressure on US bond yields to rise.
As election results continue to emerge, advocates for low-emission and zero-emission energy hope to clearly state that historic investments in this area will not be threatened. Andrew Reagan, executive director of the advocacy organization American Clean Energy, stated in a statement released via email Tuesday evening that regardless of who enters the White House, 'we know that the prosperity of American clean energy will continue.'
It is expected that Trump's victory will prompt the federal government to reassess oil production and withdraw policies encouraging the deployment of wind and solar energy. However, Reagan's confidence may stem from political pragmatism: analysts believe the likelihood of Congress fully repealing the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and its energy and manufacturing incentives is low—these subsidies currently help provide investment and job opportunities to deep red states.
Capital Economics reacts to Trump's early lead. Analysts believe if Trump wins, he will introduce immigration restrictions and tariffs through executive measures in the second quarter of 2025. This will lower the GDP growth expectations for the US from the second half of next year to the first half of 2026 by about 1%, and inflation expectations will also rise by 1%. This will also limit the Federal Reserve's ability to raise interest rates by about 50 basis points, bringing rates down to a low of 3.50% to 3.75% next year.
But there is an important warning: 'It is still too early to judge who will win control of Congress.'
