In the 2024 presidential election, Republican presidential candidate Trump leads Democratic presidential candidate Harris 230 votes to 179, needing just 40 more votes to declare victory in this election. Billionaire Musk revealed that off-market bets on Trump's chances of winning have exceeded 90%. On Wednesday (November 6), during Asian trading, the dollar peaked at 105.19, and Bitcoin surged to $75,000, leading to significant short liquidations.
U.S. election result update: Trump leads Harris 230 votes to 179.
Officials from Trump's campaign team expect to win in North Carolina and Georgia, increasing their optimism about the election and putting greater pressure on Kamala Harris to defend the Democratic 'blue wall.' As CNN's tally showed Trump leading in Virginia, cheers erupted at the Palm Beach County Convention Center, where it was originally expected that Harris would win the state.
Evan Power, the chairman of the Republican Party in Florida, stated: 'People are excited, I think everyone believes we are heading towards victory, but it will take a few more hours.'
A judge in Cambria County, Pennsylvania, ordered an extension of the voting deadline, as some ballots in the county are being counted manually. 'When ballots cannot be scanned for some reason, the county has many options to ensure every voter's ballot is counted,' said Federal Secretary Al Schmidt. 'One of those options is manual counting, and you can imagine this will take some time. This is usually done by bipartisan teams working together to manually count, and candidates and authorized representatives can observe the process.'
Katrina Ell, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that a U.S. election result favoring Trump could lead to a stock market rebound, as investors would breathe a sigh of relief after weeks of uncertainty. However, she noted that if the results leaned towards Harris, the market could see a slight decline due to expectations of higher taxes for businesses and high-income households. Ell anticipates that, regardless of who wins, the stock market will experience a 'relief rally' in the short term. However, disputed or prolonged results could heighten anxiety. She pointed out that the impact on the foreign exchange market could depend on the composition of Congress—such as whether Congress will be divided, who will lead which department, and who can advance their agenda.
The 'Trump trade' continues: Bitcoin sees significant short liquidations as whale Elon Musk reveals major signals.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, as Bitcoin reached a new historic high, a whale account shorting Bitcoin faced a significant liquidation of $74.98 million.
Musk, in a Twitter post, quoted Mike Solana's content, revealing that data from the large cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket shows that off-market bets on Trump's victory have exceeded 90%.
Bloomberg reported that the U.S. election results remain very close, despite Trump's advantage, and it is now early in a new trading day for the $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market. After Asian overnight trading has just begun, there is ample time for the Trump trade engine to run smoothly, with the 10-year Treasury yield currently approaching the largest single-day gain since April.
The currency market can be volatile, as Citi strategist Daniel Tobo pointed out — just like what happened during the 2016 and 2020 elections. For example, in 2020, the dollar's performance was similar to now: influenced by the prospects of a Trump victory, the dollar surged, driven by both safe-haven buying and tariff expectations.
On Wednesday, the dollar also rose against all G10 currencies, reaching the largest intraday gain since March 2020. Four years ago, as ballots from swing states continued to be counted, the dollar erased much of its gains in New York trading. It is still too early to say what will happen this time, but many strategists warn against allowing one-sided trading to dominate the current market.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.5%, and the CSI 300 Index also dropped 0.8%. Traders had previously indicated that, given the small exposure to the U.S. market, Chinese A-shares would be a safer place.
The dollar is sending a strong signal, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rising 1.5%, marking the largest closing price and intraday gain since March 2020. Trump's immigration restrictions and tariff plans are seen as inflationary, requiring the U.S. to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period to support the dollar.
The dollar strengthened due to early election results, reminding people that a Trump victory and protectionist policies would impact the global economy, especially in Asia. This would disrupt supply chains again and lead to rising prices in the U.S., reminiscent of the trade war in 2018. More specifically, UBS stated this could lead to a 1 percentage point decline in global economic growth, while global corporate profits might drop by 6%.
