Author: Revc, Golden Finance
Introduction
As of 11:30 AM Beijing time on the 6th, in the U.S. election, Trump leads Harris with 214 electoral votes to 179. Pennsylvania played a crucial role in the U.S. presidential election, not only as a swing state but also representing a broader distribution of voters and voter interests.
Pennsylvania voters become a decisive force in the elections
1. The weight of electoral votes
With 19 electoral votes, Pennsylvania is one of the key swing states in U.S. elections, second only to a few larger states with more electoral votes. In elections, the outcome in Pennsylvania often determines the overall election result, comparable to key states like Florida and Ohio.
2. Political geography and diverse voter structure
Pennsylvania's political landscape has a unique distribution:
Urban areas (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh): The largest cities in the state tend to support the Democrats, providing substantial support for Democratic candidates in elections.
Rural areas: Pennsylvania's rural areas largely support the Republicans, similar to rural areas in other swing states, providing important voter sources for Republican candidates.
Suburban areas (around Philadelphia): Suburbs around Philadelphia are the real battlegrounds, densely populated and with voters showing significant volatility. In recent years, due to demographic changes and shifts in political attitudes, suburban voters have gradually leaned towards the Democrats.
3. Historical status of swing states
Pennsylvania has historically swung between the two parties and has been a barometer of broader political trends in the U.S.:
1992 to 2012: Pennsylvania supported the Democrats for six consecutive elections, becoming one of the so-called 'Blue Wall' states, alongside Michigan and Wisconsin.
2016 shift to the Republican Party: In a significant shift, Pennsylvania narrowly supported Republican candidate Trump in 2016, marking the first Republican victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, reflecting changes in working-class voter preferences, especially in rural and industrial areas.
2020 return to the Democratic Party: Biden won Pennsylvania narrowly in 2020, highlighting the state's competitiveness and the importance of working-class and suburban voters. The growth of suburban populations and changes in rural voter attitudes are influencing the entire electoral landscape.
4. The impact of working-class voters
Pennsylvania has a large working-class population, including blue-collar workers from coal, steel, and manufacturing, particularly concentrated in the western part of the state. Due to the importance of economic issues, these working-class voters have shown changes in political loyalty in recent election cycles. The support from Pennsylvania's working-class voters is uncertain but crucial in determining statewide election outcomes.
5. The importance of 'Blue Wall' states
Pennsylvania is traditionally one of the 'Blue Wall' states that vote for the Democratic Party (including Michigan and Wisconsin), consistently supporting the Democrats from 1992 to 2016. For the Democrats, winning Pennsylvania is usually key to obtaining 270 electoral votes. For the Republicans, winning Pennsylvania can provide a significant advantage, requiring Democrats to win more challenging states to make up for the loss.
Pennsylvania's electoral situation and trends
In recent years, Pennsylvania's competitiveness has gradually increased, with several key factors:
Suburban voting trends: Especially in the suburbs around Philadelphia, due to demographic changes and differing voter stances on issues like healthcare and education, voting has gradually leaned towards the Democrats.
The shift of working-class voters: Economic issues are central in Pennsylvania, with trade, manufacturing, and energy policies directly affecting Pennsylvania voters, making economic topics particularly influential.
Voter turnout and early voting: In 2020, Pennsylvania expanded mail-in voting under the impact of the pandemic, which increased historical voter turnout and reshaped the campaign strategies of both parties.
Pennsylvania's electoral history performance - Swing State
Before 1992: Pennsylvania had high competitiveness, typically supporting the winner, occasionally leaning towards the Republicans, such as Nixon's victory in 1972 and Reagan's victory in the 1980s; but in some closer elections, it leaned towards the Democrats, such as Kennedy's victory in 1960.
1992 to 2012 Democratic dominance: From Clinton's victory in 1992 to Obama's victory in 2012, Pennsylvania supported Democratic candidates for six consecutive elections, a trend that coincided with the increase of urban and suburban voters.
2016 shift to the Republican Party: Trump's victory marked a historic shift, as Pennsylvania narrowly turned Republican. Trump's focus on working-class economic concerns resonated with rural and industrial voters.
2020 return to the Democratic Party: Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2020, reaffirming the state's swing status and the importance of suburban and working-class voters. Biden's victory relied heavily on high turnout in urban and suburban areas, further highlighting the critical role of these regions.
Summary
Pennsylvania's diverse population structure and its swing status in electoral history highlight its key role in the American electoral landscape. Pennsylvania voters often prioritize economic policies related to manufacturing and energy. The divergence between urban, rural, and suburban voters reflects national trends to some extent, with suburban areas increasingly playing a decisive role in statewide election outcomes.
