Author: Glenn Hodl

Compiled by: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Editor's note: The trends in the cryptocurrency market remain elusive, but Microstrategy (MSTR), which is strongly tied to Bitcoin, recently set a historical high for its stock price — US stock market data shows that on October 9, MSTR once approached the 200 dollar mark, peaking at 198.35 dollars.

Recently, overseas KOL Glenn Hodl provided his analysis regarding Microstrategy's strength. Glenn believes that even if Bitcoin prices do not increase any further, Microstrategy can create a sustainable 'perpetual motion machine' that continuously boosts its market capitalization by capitalizing on the differences in valuation models for commodities and companies, ultimately making Microstrategy the largest company by market capitalization in the world.

The following is the original content from Glenn.

Microstrategy's CEO Michael Saylor seems to have found an 'eternal motion' economic model.

I am not sure whether this mechanism can be stopped, but if it continues to operate, Microstrategy is very likely to become the most valuable company in the world.

The reason lies in the essential difference between the way a company's valuation is approached compared to the valuation of commodities like Bitcoin. This creates a paradox in the market when valuing Microstrategy (MSTR) — commodities are always traded at current prices, while companies trade at discounted prices based on their future value.

Therefore, if you believe that Bitcoin will become more valuable at some point in the future, then the Bitcoins held by Microstrategy will also likely and should become more valuable.

This could create a 'second-order effect', whereby Microstrategy can continuously capture this premium expectation, enhancing the attractiveness of its narrative and pushing its market capitalization higher.

Some readers may still not understand, so here is a static, ultra-simplified version.

Now there is a company that has issued 10 shares of stock while holding 10 Bitcoins.

Assuming the current spot price of Bitcoin is 2 dollars and the market expects it to rise to at least 4 dollars. According to the valuation model for companies (trading at a discount to their future value, assuming a discount rate of 50%), the company's stock price would be 3 dollars, representing a premium of 50% over its net asset value.

The company's owner identified an opportunity here, so he issued 2 new shares at market price and used the 6 dollars to acquire 3 Bitcoins from the market.

Now, this company has issued 12 shares of stock in total and holds 13 Bitcoins, with the ratio of 'Bitcoin holdings / Shares issued' changing from 1: 1 to 1.08: 1.

The key point is that the company's market capitalization is currently 36 dollars, with treasury value at 26 dollars, and the premium rate has been reduced to 38% (which means the discount rate has increased to 62%). However, the market will still value the company at a 50% discount to its future value, which will push the company's market capitalization up to 39 dollars, corresponding to a stock price of 3.25 dollars.

After the premium correction, the company's owner can repeat the above path again, that is, issue 2 new shares at market prices and use the 6.5 dollars to buy 3.25 Bitcoins from the market.

Now, the number of shares issued has reached 14, while Bitcoin holdings have grown to 16.25. The ratio of 'Bitcoin holdings / Shares issued' has changed from 1.08: 1 to 1.16: 1.

Subsequently, as the market again corrected the premium situation based on 'valuing the company at a 50% discount to its future value', the company's market capitalization will be pushed up to 48.75 dollars, corresponding to a stock price slightly below 3.5 dollars.

So far, although the price of Bitcoin has not changed, and the premium rate has returned to 50%, the company's 'Bitcoin holdings / Shares issued' ratio has increased by 16%, and its stock price has also increased by about 16%.

At this point, a monster has taken shape. The company can repeatedly follow the above process, utilizing the market's differences in valuation models for commodities and companies to create a perpetual motion machine, while the market continuously increases its valuation — firstly because the future value of Bitcoin will increase, and secondly because the company's 'Bitcoin holdings / Shares issued' ratio is also continually rising.

Microstrategy is this monster, poised to become the company with the largest market capitalization.