As the U.S. election approaches, market fluctuations have intensified. Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop during the early Asian trading hours today (5th), briefly falling below 68,000 USD, touching the 30-day moving average around 66.9k, dragging down the overall cryptocurrency market. With election day arriving, Bitcoin is unlikely to break through in the next few days, as funds tend to be conservative during such sensitive moments.

During the election process

After 12:00 PM Beijing time on November 6 (after 11:00 PM ET on November 5): As the results from various states are announced, the national election results will gradually become clear.

I personally believe that regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins the election, it might not determine the price growth of Bitcoin. Driven by the trend, BTC is expected to exceed 100,000 USD in the future.

Dates worth noting after election day:

From November 6 to December 11: States certify election results.

December 17: The Electoral College meets to cast official votes.

January 6, 2025: The U.S. Congress holds a meeting to count and certify the electoral votes.

January 20, 2025: The elected president of the United States officially takes the oath of office.

If it weren't for the recent "reverse news", the market should have risen at the end of the month and the beginning of the next, and the election would likely break historical highs in the short term, with altcoins rising together. After a large bullish candle, it would start to harvest. However, after the news of Trump's "defeat", the market has already digested this in advance. So if Trump wins, the market should quickly pull back to the level before the decline. Now, if he wins, it would be unexpected, and the market would quickly return to its previous position, so the entry opportunity would be in these two days.

"Harris's victory" is not necessarily a significant negative for the market.

First of all, the Harris team has also accepted cryptocurrency donations, and the XRP company seems to have donated 20 million USD. However, Harris has not publicly expressed much support for cryptocurrencies, so the market expects that Trump is better in the cryptocurrency field.

Overall, regardless of who is elected, it will not change the future trend of the cryptocurrency market, only affect the short-term rhythm.

However, compared to the short-term impact caused by the elections, the more important long-term influencing factor is whether the overall economy of the United States and the global economy can continue to improve. The real factors affecting the trends in the cryptocurrency market and other capital markets are the economic fundamentals of the United States, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and international economic conditions. These economic factors determine market liquidity and investors' risk appetite, rather than a single leader. Therefore, focusing on macroeconomic trends is the key to judging the long-term direction of the market, rather than being fixated on the short-term fluctuations brought about by leadership changes.

Overall, this week is destined to be a week of significant market volatility. The market trend for the next month or two may be largely determined this week. If the market rises this week, the year-end trend will be basically stable. If the market falls this week, it will enter a long period of consolidation.

Finally

Manage your positions according to your risk appetite. Large positions are still being allocated to Bitcoin in batches. The cryptocurrency market has never lacked hot news or events. Just like now, no one cares about Bitcoin's halving event anymore, no one cares about various governments selling Bitcoin, and no one cares if the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates... Maybe in a few months, who the President of the United States is will also not matter to anyone.

Market hot news or events will always appear in front of retail investors at the right time. We should not let various news disturb our plans and strategies. The only thing we should care about is: do you have Bitcoin in your hands now, and has your Bitcoin increased or decreased!

Additionally, I want to say don’t tie yourself to the election chariot. The bullish and bearish signals of the capital market are hard to say, otherwise there wouldn’t be significant rises after bad news and declines after good news; everything is just a fabricated lie. Only seeing the reality as it is, is the key! Now, observe more and act less, quietly wait for the dust to settle!